1 Data preparation

1.1 Outline

  • Load scripts: loads libraries and useful scripts used in the analyses; all .R files contained in scripts at the root of the factory are automatically loaded

  • Load data: imports datasets, and may contain some ad hoc changes to the data such as specific data cleaning (not used in other reports), new variables used in the analyses, etc.

1.2 Load packages


library(reportfactory)
library(here)
library(rio) 
library(tidyverse)
library(incidence)
library(distcrete)
library(epitrix)
library(earlyR)
library(projections)
library(linelist)
library(remotes)
library(janitor)
library(kableExtra)
library(DT)
library(cyphr)
library(chngpt)
library(lubridate)
library(ggpubr)
library(ggnewscale)

1.3 Load scripts

These scripts will load:

  • all scripts stored as .R files inside /scripts/
  • all scripts stored as .R files inside /src/

These scripts also contain routines to access the latest clean encrypted data (see next section).


reportfactory::rfh_load_scripts()

1.4 Load clean data

We import the latest NHS pathways data:


x <- import_pathways() %>%
  as_tibble()
x
## # A tibble: 449,644 x 11
##    site_type date       sex    age   ccg_code ccg_name count postcode nhs_region
##    <chr>     <date>     <chr>  <chr> <chr>    <chr>    <int> <chr>    <chr>     
##  1 111       2020-03-18 female miss… e380000… nhs_glo…     1 gl34fe   South West
##  2 111       2020-03-18 female miss… e380001… nhs_sou…     1 ne325nn  North Eas…
##  3 111       2020-03-18 female 0-18  e380000… nhs_air…     8 bd57jr   North Eas…
##  4 111       2020-03-18 female 0-18  e380000… nhs_ash…     7 tn254ab  South East
##  5 111       2020-03-18 female 0-18  e380000… nhs_bar…    35 rm13ae   London    
##  6 111       2020-03-18 female 0-18  e380000… nhs_bar…     9 n111np   London    
##  7 111       2020-03-18 female 0-18  e380000… nhs_bar…    11 s752py   North Eas…
##  8 111       2020-03-18 female 0-18  e380000… nhs_bas…    19 ss143hg  East of E…
##  9 111       2020-03-18 female 0-18  e380000… nhs_bas…     6 dn227xf  North Eas…
## 10 111       2020-03-18 female 0-18  e380000… nhs_bat…     9 ba25rp   South West
## # … with 449,634 more rows, and 2 more variables: day <int>, weekday <fct>

We also import demographics data for NHS regions in England, used later in our analysis:


path <- here::here("data", "csv", "nhs_region_population_2018.csv")
nhs_region_pop <- rio::import(path) %>%
  mutate(nhs_region = str_to_title(gsub("_"," ",nhs_region)))

nhs_region_pop$nhs_region <- gsub(" Of ", " of ", nhs_region_pop$nhs_region)
nhs_region_pop$nhs_region <- gsub(" And ", " and ", nhs_region_pop$nhs_region)
nhs_region_pop
##                  nhs_region variable      value
## 1                North West     0-18 0.22538599
## 2  North East and Yorkshire     0-18 0.21876449
## 3                  Midlands     0-18 0.22564656
## 4           East of England     0-18 0.22810783
## 5                    London     0-18 0.23764782
## 6                South East     0-18 0.22458811
## 7                South West     0-18 0.20799797
## 8                North West    19-69 0.64274078
## 9  North East and Yorkshire    19-69 0.64437753
## 10                 Midlands    19-69 0.63876675
## 11          East of England    19-69 0.63034229
## 12                   London    19-69 0.67820084
## 13               South East    19-69 0.63267336
## 14               South West    19-69 0.63176131
## 15               North West   70-120 0.13187323
## 16 North East and Yorkshire   70-120 0.13685797
## 17                 Midlands   70-120 0.13558669
## 18          East of England   70-120 0.14154988
## 19                   London   70-120 0.08415135
## 20               South East   70-120 0.14273853
## 21               South West   70-120 0.16024072

Finally, we import publically available deaths per NHS region:


dth <- import_deaths() %>%
  mutate(nhs_region = str_to_title(gsub("_"," ",nhs_region)))

#truncation to account for reporting delay
delay_max <- 21

dth$nhs_region <- gsub(" Of ", " of ", dth$nhs_region)
dth$nhs_region <- gsub(" And ", " and ", dth$nhs_region)
dth
##      date_report               nhs_region deaths
## 1     2020-03-01          East of England      0
## 2     2020-03-02          East of England      1
## 3     2020-03-03          East of England      0
## 4     2020-03-04          East of England      0
## 5     2020-03-05          East of England      0
## 6     2020-03-06          East of England      1
## 7     2020-03-07          East of England      0
## 8     2020-03-08          East of England      0
## 9     2020-03-09          East of England      1
## 10    2020-03-10          East of England      0
## 11    2020-03-11          East of England      0
## 12    2020-03-12          East of England      0
## 13    2020-03-13          East of England      1
## 14    2020-03-14          East of England      2
## 15    2020-03-15          East of England      2
## 16    2020-03-16          East of England      1
## 17    2020-03-17          East of England      1
## 18    2020-03-18          East of England      5
## 19    2020-03-19          East of England      4
## 20    2020-03-20          East of England      2
## 21    2020-03-21          East of England     11
## 22    2020-03-22          East of England     12
## 23    2020-03-23          East of England     11
## 24    2020-03-24          East of England     19
## 25    2020-03-25          East of England     26
## 26    2020-03-26          East of England     36
## 27    2020-03-27          East of England     38
## 28    2020-03-28          East of England     28
## 29    2020-03-29          East of England     43
## 30    2020-03-30          East of England     45
## 31    2020-03-31          East of England     70
## 32    2020-04-01          East of England     63
## 33    2020-04-02          East of England     65
## 34    2020-04-03          East of England     80
## 35    2020-04-04          East of England     71
## 36    2020-04-05          East of England     76
## 37    2020-04-06          East of England     71
## 38    2020-04-07          East of England     93
## 39    2020-04-08          East of England    111
## 40    2020-04-09          East of England     87
## 41    2020-04-10          East of England     74
## 42    2020-04-11          East of England     92
## 43    2020-04-12          East of England    100
## 44    2020-04-13          East of England     78
## 45    2020-04-14          East of England     61
## 46    2020-04-15          East of England     82
## 47    2020-04-16          East of England     74
## 48    2020-04-17          East of England     86
## 49    2020-04-18          East of England     64
## 50    2020-04-19          East of England     67
## 51    2020-04-20          East of England     67
## 52    2020-04-21          East of England     75
## 53    2020-04-22          East of England     67
## 54    2020-04-23          East of England     49
## 55    2020-04-24          East of England     66
## 56    2020-04-25          East of England     54
## 57    2020-04-26          East of England     48
## 58    2020-04-27          East of England     46
## 59    2020-04-28          East of England     58
## 60    2020-04-29          East of England     32
## 61    2020-04-30          East of England     45
## 62    2020-05-01          East of England     49
## 63    2020-05-02          East of England     29
## 64    2020-05-03          East of England     41
## 65    2020-05-04          East of England     19
## 66    2020-05-05          East of England     36
## 67    2020-05-06          East of England     31
## 68    2020-05-07          East of England     33
## 69    2020-05-08          East of England     33
## 70    2020-05-09          East of England     29
## 71    2020-05-10          East of England     22
## 72    2020-05-11          East of England     18
## 73    2020-05-12          East of England     21
## 74    2020-05-13          East of England     27
## 75    2020-05-14          East of England     26
## 76    2020-05-15          East of England     19
## 77    2020-05-16          East of England     26
## 78    2020-05-17          East of England     17
## 79    2020-05-18          East of England     25
## 80    2020-05-19          East of England     15
## 81    2020-05-20          East of England     26
## 82    2020-05-21          East of England     21
## 83    2020-05-22          East of England     13
## 84    2020-05-23          East of England     12
## 85    2020-05-24          East of England     17
## 86    2020-05-25          East of England     25
## 87    2020-05-26          East of England     14
## 88    2020-05-27          East of England     12
## 89    2020-05-28          East of England     17
## 90    2020-05-29          East of England     16
## 91    2020-05-30          East of England      9
## 92    2020-05-31          East of England      8
## 93    2020-06-01          East of England     17
## 94    2020-06-02          East of England     14
## 95    2020-06-03          East of England     10
## 96    2020-06-04          East of England      7
## 97    2020-06-05          East of England     14
## 98    2020-06-06          East of England      5
## 99    2020-06-07          East of England      9
## 100   2020-06-08          East of England      7
## 101   2020-06-09          East of England      6
## 102   2020-06-10          East of England      8
## 103   2020-06-11          East of England      1
## 104   2020-06-12          East of England      9
## 105   2020-06-13          East of England      5
## 106   2020-06-14          East of England      4
## 107   2020-06-15          East of England      8
## 108   2020-06-16          East of England      3
## 109   2020-06-17          East of England      7
## 110   2020-06-18          East of England      4
## 111   2020-06-19          East of England      7
## 112   2020-06-20          East of England      4
## 113   2020-06-21          East of England      3
## 114   2020-06-22          East of England      6
## 115   2020-06-23          East of England      5
## 116   2020-06-24          East of England      4
## 117   2020-06-25          East of England      1
## 118   2020-06-26          East of England      5
## 119   2020-06-27          East of England      6
## 120   2020-06-28          East of England      8
## 121   2020-06-29          East of England      4
## 122   2020-06-30          East of England      5
## 123   2020-07-01          East of England      2
## 124   2020-07-02          East of England      5
## 125   2020-07-03          East of England      0
## 126   2020-07-04          East of England      3
## 127   2020-07-05          East of England      1
## 128   2020-07-06          East of England      2
## 129   2020-07-07          East of England      2
## 130   2020-07-08          East of England      0
## 131   2020-07-09          East of England      8
## 132   2020-07-10          East of England      4
## 133   2020-07-11          East of England      2
## 134   2020-07-12          East of England      1
## 135   2020-07-13          East of England      8
## 136   2020-07-14          East of England      2
## 137   2020-07-15          East of England      0
## 138   2020-07-16          East of England      0
## 139   2020-07-17          East of England      0
## 140   2020-07-18          East of England      0
## 141   2020-07-19          East of England      1
## 142   2020-07-20          East of England      1
## 143   2020-07-21          East of England      1
## 144   2020-07-22          East of England      2
## 145   2020-07-23          East of England      1
## 146   2020-07-24          East of England      1
## 147   2020-07-25          East of England      0
## 148   2020-07-26          East of England      1
## 149   2020-07-27          East of England      1
## 150   2020-07-28          East of England      2
## 151   2020-07-29          East of England      0
## 152   2020-07-30          East of England      0
## 153   2020-07-31          East of England      1
## 154   2020-08-01          East of England      0
## 155   2020-08-02          East of England      0
## 156   2020-08-03          East of England      0
## 157   2020-08-04          East of England      1
## 158   2020-08-05          East of England      1
## 159   2020-08-06          East of England      0
## 160   2020-08-07          East of England      1
## 161   2020-08-08          East of England      0
## 162   2020-08-09          East of England      0
## 163   2020-08-10          East of England      1
## 164   2020-08-11          East of England      2
## 165   2020-08-12          East of England      1
## 166   2020-08-13          East of England      0
## 167   2020-08-14          East of England      1
## 168   2020-08-15          East of England      1
## 169   2020-08-16          East of England      0
## 170   2020-08-17          East of England      0
## 171   2020-08-18          East of England      2
## 172   2020-08-19          East of England      1
## 173   2020-08-20          East of England      1
## 174   2020-08-21          East of England      0
## 175   2020-08-22          East of England      1
## 176   2020-08-23          East of England      1
## 177   2020-08-24          East of England      0
## 178   2020-08-25          East of England      0
## 179   2020-08-26          East of England      1
## 180   2020-08-27          East of England      1
## 181   2020-08-28          East of England      0
## 182   2020-08-29          East of England      0
## 183   2020-08-30          East of England      0
## 184   2020-08-31          East of England      0
## 185   2020-09-01          East of England      0
## 186   2020-09-02          East of England      0
## 187   2020-09-03          East of England      1
## 188   2020-09-04          East of England      1
## 189   2020-09-05          East of England      0
## 190   2020-09-06          East of England      1
## 191   2020-09-07          East of England      0
## 192   2020-09-08          East of England      0
## 193   2020-09-09          East of England      0
## 194   2020-09-10          East of England      0
## 195   2020-09-11          East of England      0
## 196   2020-09-12          East of England      0
## 197   2020-09-13          East of England      1
## 198   2020-09-14          East of England      1
## 199   2020-09-15          East of England      0
## 200   2020-09-16          East of England      0
## 201   2020-09-17          East of England      0
## 202   2020-09-18          East of England      0
## 203   2020-09-19          East of England      0
## 204   2020-09-20          East of England      2
## 205   2020-09-21          East of England      0
## 206   2020-09-22          East of England      2
## 207   2020-09-23          East of England      1
## 208   2020-09-24          East of England      0
## 209   2020-09-25          East of England      1
## 210   2020-09-26          East of England      1
## 211   2020-09-27          East of England      1
## 212   2020-09-28          East of England      2
## 213   2020-09-29          East of England      2
## 214   2020-09-30          East of England      2
## 215   2020-10-01          East of England      2
## 216   2020-10-02          East of England      1
## 217   2020-10-03          East of England      1
## 218   2020-10-04          East of England      0
## 219   2020-10-05          East of England      0
## 220   2020-10-06          East of England      4
## 221   2020-10-07          East of England      6
## 222   2020-10-08          East of England      3
## 223   2020-10-09          East of England      1
## 224   2020-10-10          East of England      6
## 225   2020-10-11          East of England      2
## 226   2020-10-12          East of England      2
## 227   2020-10-13          East of England      1
## 228   2020-10-14          East of England      3
## 229   2020-10-15          East of England      4
## 230   2020-10-16          East of England      5
## 231   2020-10-17          East of England      6
## 232   2020-10-18          East of England      7
## 233   2020-10-19          East of England      5
## 234   2020-10-20          East of England      9
## 235   2020-10-21          East of England      8
## 236   2020-10-22          East of England      7
## 237   2020-10-23          East of England     14
## 238   2020-10-24          East of England      1
## 239   2020-10-25          East of England     10
## 240   2020-10-26          East of England     10
## 241   2020-10-27          East of England      8
## 242   2020-10-28          East of England     12
## 243   2020-10-29          East of England     10
## 244   2020-10-30          East of England     12
## 245   2020-10-31          East of England     15
## 246   2020-11-01          East of England     14
## 247   2020-11-02          East of England      9
## 248   2020-11-03          East of England     14
## 249   2020-11-04          East of England     11
## 250   2020-11-05          East of England     12
## 251   2020-11-06          East of England     18
## 252   2020-11-07          East of England     10
## 253   2020-11-08          East of England     13
## 254   2020-11-09          East of England     16
## 255   2020-11-10          East of England     26
## 256   2020-11-11          East of England     14
## 257   2020-11-12          East of England     14
## 258   2020-11-13          East of England     21
## 259   2020-11-14          East of England     19
## 260   2020-11-15          East of England     13
## 261   2020-11-16          East of England     11
## 262   2020-11-17          East of England     17
## 263   2020-11-18          East of England     19
## 264   2020-11-19          East of England     23
## 265   2020-11-20          East of England     24
## 266   2020-11-21          East of England     19
## 267   2020-11-22          East of England     21
## 268   2020-11-23          East of England     18
## 269   2020-11-24          East of England     21
## 270   2020-11-25          East of England     19
## 271   2020-11-26          East of England     19
## 272   2020-11-27          East of England     14
## 273   2020-11-28          East of England     28
## 274   2020-11-29          East of England     19
## 275   2020-11-30          East of England     22
## 276   2020-12-01          East of England     26
## 277   2020-12-02          East of England     18
## 278   2020-12-03          East of England     24
## 279   2020-12-04          East of England     25
## 280   2020-12-05          East of England     25
## 281   2020-12-06          East of England     21
## 282   2020-12-07          East of England     16
## 283   2020-12-08          East of England     26
## 284   2020-12-09          East of England     19
## 285   2020-12-10          East of England     32
## 286   2020-12-11          East of England     32
## 287   2020-12-12          East of England     27
## 288   2020-12-13          East of England     25
## 289   2020-12-14          East of England     32
## 290   2020-12-15          East of England     35
## 291   2020-12-16          East of England     29
## 292   2020-12-17          East of England     42
## 293   2020-12-18          East of England     44
## 294   2020-12-19          East of England     54
## 295   2020-12-20          East of England     52
## 296   2020-12-21          East of England     66
## 297   2020-12-22          East of England     52
## 298   2020-12-23          East of England     62
## 299   2020-12-24          East of England     61
## 300   2020-12-25          East of England     58
## 301   2020-12-26          East of England     64
## 302   2020-12-27          East of England     54
## 303   2020-12-28          East of England     71
## 304   2020-12-29          East of England     54
## 305   2020-12-30          East of England     76
## 306   2020-12-31          East of England     82
## 307   2021-01-01          East of England     89
## 308   2021-01-02          East of England     66
## 309   2021-01-03          East of England     78
## 310   2021-01-04          East of England     87
## 311   2021-01-05          East of England    102
## 312   2021-01-06          East of England    100
## 313   2021-01-07          East of England    116
## 314   2021-01-08          East of England     95
## 315   2021-01-09          East of England    133
## 316   2021-01-10          East of England    124
## 317   2021-01-11          East of England    126
## 318   2021-01-12          East of England    131
## 319   2021-01-13          East of England    131
## 320   2021-01-14          East of England    126
## 321   2021-01-15          East of England    118
## 322   2021-01-16          East of England    130
## 323   2021-01-17          East of England    132
## 324   2021-01-18          East of England    120
## 325   2021-01-19          East of England    128
## 326   2021-01-20          East of England    147
## 327   2021-01-21          East of England    133
## 328   2021-01-22          East of England    121
## 329   2021-01-23          East of England    102
## 330   2021-01-24          East of England    101
## 331   2021-01-25          East of England    111
## 332   2021-01-26          East of England     87
## 333   2021-01-27          East of England     94
## 334   2021-01-28          East of England    110
## 335   2021-01-29          East of England     95
## 336   2021-01-30          East of England     84
## 337   2021-01-31          East of England     71
## 338   2021-02-01          East of England     63
## 339   2021-02-02          East of England     73
## 340   2021-02-03          East of England     80
## 341   2021-02-04          East of England     75
## 342   2021-02-05          East of England     65
## 343   2021-02-06          East of England     75
## 344   2021-02-07          East of England     61
## 345   2021-02-08          East of England     73
## 346   2021-02-09          East of England     62
## 347   2021-02-10          East of England     49
## 348   2021-02-11          East of England     52
## 349   2021-02-12          East of England     47
## 350   2021-02-13          East of England     45
## 351   2021-02-14          East of England     31
## 352   2021-02-15          East of England     46
## 353   2021-02-16          East of England     45
## 354   2021-02-17          East of England     46
## 355   2021-02-18          East of England     28
## 356   2021-02-19          East of England     26
## 357   2021-02-20          East of England     29
## 358   2021-02-21          East of England     23
## 359   2021-02-22          East of England     23
## 360   2021-02-23          East of England     17
## 361   2021-02-24          East of England      2
## 362   2020-03-01                   London      0
## 363   2020-03-02                   London      0
## 364   2020-03-03                   London      0
## 365   2020-03-04                   London      0
## 366   2020-03-05                   London      0
## 367   2020-03-06                   London      1
## 368   2020-03-07                   London      0
## 369   2020-03-08                   London      0
## 370   2020-03-09                   London      1
## 371   2020-03-10                   London      0
## 372   2020-03-11                   London      5
## 373   2020-03-12                   London      6
## 374   2020-03-13                   London     10
## 375   2020-03-14                   London     13
## 376   2020-03-15                   London      9
## 377   2020-03-16                   London     15
## 378   2020-03-17                   London     23
## 379   2020-03-18                   London     28
## 380   2020-03-19                   London     25
## 381   2020-03-20                   London     44
## 382   2020-03-21                   London     49
## 383   2020-03-22                   London     54
## 384   2020-03-23                   London     63
## 385   2020-03-24                   London     86
## 386   2020-03-25                   London    112
## 387   2020-03-26                   London    130
## 388   2020-03-27                   London    130
## 389   2020-03-28                   London    123
## 390   2020-03-29                   London    145
## 391   2020-03-30                   London    151
## 392   2020-03-31                   London    183
## 393   2020-04-01                   London    202
## 394   2020-04-02                   London    191
## 395   2020-04-03                   London    199
## 396   2020-04-04                   London    231
## 397   2020-04-05                   London    195
## 398   2020-04-06                   London    198
## 399   2020-04-07                   London    220
## 400   2020-04-08                   London    239
## 401   2020-04-09                   London    207
## 402   2020-04-10                   London    171
## 403   2020-04-11                   London    178
## 404   2020-04-12                   London    159
## 405   2020-04-13                   London    166
## 406   2020-04-14                   London    143
## 407   2020-04-15                   London    143
## 408   2020-04-16                   London    140
## 409   2020-04-17                   London    101
## 410   2020-04-18                   London    101
## 411   2020-04-19                   London    104
## 412   2020-04-20                   London     96
## 413   2020-04-21                   London     96
## 414   2020-04-22                   London    109
## 415   2020-04-23                   London     77
## 416   2020-04-24                   London     71
## 417   2020-04-25                   London     58
## 418   2020-04-26                   London     53
## 419   2020-04-27                   London     52
## 420   2020-04-28                   London     44
## 421   2020-04-29                   London     45
## 422   2020-04-30                   London     40
## 423   2020-05-01                   London     41
## 424   2020-05-02                   London     41
## 425   2020-05-03                   London     36
## 426   2020-05-04                   London     30
## 427   2020-05-05                   London     25
## 428   2020-05-06                   London     37
## 429   2020-05-07                   London     37
## 430   2020-05-08                   London     31
## 431   2020-05-09                   London     23
## 432   2020-05-10                   London     26
## 433   2020-05-11                   London     18
## 434   2020-05-12                   London     18
## 435   2020-05-13                   London     17
## 436   2020-05-14                   London     20
## 437   2020-05-15                   London     19
## 438   2020-05-16                   London     14
## 439   2020-05-17                   London     16
## 440   2020-05-18                   London     11
## 441   2020-05-19                   London     14
## 442   2020-05-20                   London     19
## 443   2020-05-21                   London     12
## 444   2020-05-22                   London     10
## 445   2020-05-23                   London      6
## 446   2020-05-24                   London      7
## 447   2020-05-25                   London      9
## 448   2020-05-26                   London     14
## 449   2020-05-27                   London      7
## 450   2020-05-28                   London      8
## 451   2020-05-29                   London      7
## 452   2020-05-30                   London     12
## 453   2020-05-31                   London      6
## 454   2020-06-01                   London     10
## 455   2020-06-02                   London      8
## 456   2020-06-03                   London      6
## 457   2020-06-04                   London      8
## 458   2020-06-05                   London      4
## 459   2020-06-06                   London      0
## 460   2020-06-07                   London      5
## 461   2020-06-08                   London      5
## 462   2020-06-09                   London      5
## 463   2020-06-10                   London      8
## 464   2020-06-11                   London      5
## 465   2020-06-12                   London      3
## 466   2020-06-13                   London      3
## 467   2020-06-14                   London      3
## 468   2020-06-15                   London      1
## 469   2020-06-16                   London      2
## 470   2020-06-17                   London      1
## 471   2020-06-18                   London      2
## 472   2020-06-19                   London      5
## 473   2020-06-20                   London      3
## 474   2020-06-21                   London      4
## 475   2020-06-22                   London      2
## 476   2020-06-23                   London      1
## 477   2020-06-24                   London      4
## 478   2020-06-25                   London      3
## 479   2020-06-26                   London      2
## 480   2020-06-27                   London      1
## 481   2020-06-28                   London      2
## 482   2020-06-29                   London      2
## 483   2020-06-30                   London      1
## 484   2020-07-01                   London      3
## 485   2020-07-02                   London      2
## 486   2020-07-03                   London      2
## 487   2020-07-04                   London      1
## 488   2020-07-05                   London      3
## 489   2020-07-06                   London      2
## 490   2020-07-07                   London      1
## 491   2020-07-08                   London      3
## 492   2020-07-09                   London      4
## 493   2020-07-10                   London      0
## 494   2020-07-11                   London      1
## 495   2020-07-12                   London      1
## 496   2020-07-13                   London      1
## 497   2020-07-14                   London      0
## 498   2020-07-15                   London      2
## 499   2020-07-16                   London      0
## 500   2020-07-17                   London      0
## 501   2020-07-18                   London      2
## 502   2020-07-19                   London      0
## 503   2020-07-20                   London      0
## 504   2020-07-21                   London      1
## 505   2020-07-22                   London      0
## 506   2020-07-23                   London      2
## 507   2020-07-24                   London      0
## 508   2020-07-25                   London      1
## 509   2020-07-26                   London      0
## 510   2020-07-27                   London      1
## 511   2020-07-28                   London      0
## 512   2020-07-29                   London      0
## 513   2020-07-30                   London      1
## 514   2020-07-31                   London      0
## 515   2020-08-01                   London      0
## 516   2020-08-02                   London      3
## 517   2020-08-03                   London      0
## 518   2020-08-04                   London      0
## 519   2020-08-05                   London      0
## 520   2020-08-06                   London      1
## 521   2020-08-07                   London      0
## 522   2020-08-08                   London      0
## 523   2020-08-09                   London      0
## 524   2020-08-10                   London      0
## 525   2020-08-11                   London      1
## 526   2020-08-12                   London      0
## 527   2020-08-13                   London      2
## 528   2020-08-14                   London      0
## 529   2020-08-15                   London      0
## 530   2020-08-16                   London      0
## 531   2020-08-17                   London      1
## 532   2020-08-18                   London      1
## 533   2020-08-19                   London      0
## 534   2020-08-20                   London      1
## 535   2020-08-21                   London      0
## 536   2020-08-22                   London      0
## 537   2020-08-23                   London      0
## 538   2020-08-24                   London      1
## 539   2020-08-25                   London      1
## 540   2020-08-26                   London      0
## 541   2020-08-27                   London      0
## 542   2020-08-28                   London      0
## 543   2020-08-29                   London      0
## 544   2020-08-30                   London      0
## 545   2020-08-31                   London      1
## 546   2020-09-01                   London      0
## 547   2020-09-02                   London      1
## 548   2020-09-03                   London      1
## 549   2020-09-04                   London      0
## 550   2020-09-05                   London      0
## 551   2020-09-06                   London      2
## 552   2020-09-07                   London      0
## 553   2020-09-08                   London      0
## 554   2020-09-09                   London      0
## 555   2020-09-10                   London      2
## 556   2020-09-11                   London      1
## 557   2020-09-12                   London      1
## 558   2020-09-13                   London      0
## 559   2020-09-14                   London      0
## 560   2020-09-15                   London      1
## 561   2020-09-16                   London      2
## 562   2020-09-17                   London      2
## 563   2020-09-18                   London      1
## 564   2020-09-19                   London      3
## 565   2020-09-20                   London      3
## 566   2020-09-21                   London      2
## 567   2020-09-22                   London      6
## 568   2020-09-23                   London      4
## 569   2020-09-24                   London      3
## 570   2020-09-25                   London      1
## 571   2020-09-26                   London      1
## 572   2020-09-27                   London      1
## 573   2020-09-28                   London      3
## 574   2020-09-29                   London      7
## 575   2020-09-30                   London      6
## 576   2020-10-01                   London      4
## 577   2020-10-02                   London      1
## 578   2020-10-03                   London      3
## 579   2020-10-04                   London      2
## 580   2020-10-05                   London      7
## 581   2020-10-06                   London      4
## 582   2020-10-07                   London      6
## 583   2020-10-08                   London      6
## 584   2020-10-09                   London      7
## 585   2020-10-10                   London      3
## 586   2020-10-11                   London      5
## 587   2020-10-12                   London      7
## 588   2020-10-13                   London      4
## 589   2020-10-14                   London      6
## 590   2020-10-15                   London     13
## 591   2020-10-16                   London      6
## 592   2020-10-17                   London      2
## 593   2020-10-18                   London      5
## 594   2020-10-19                   London     11
## 595   2020-10-20                   London      8
## 596   2020-10-21                   London     14
## 597   2020-10-22                   London     12
## 598   2020-10-23                   London      7
## 599   2020-10-24                   London     18
## 600   2020-10-25                   London     10
## 601   2020-10-26                   London     10
## 602   2020-10-27                   London     12
## 603   2020-10-28                   London     23
## 604   2020-10-29                   London     14
## 605   2020-10-30                   London     17
## 606   2020-10-31                   London      7
## 607   2020-11-01                   London     17
## 608   2020-11-02                   London     16
## 609   2020-11-03                   London     10
## 610   2020-11-04                   London     18
## 611   2020-11-05                   London     17
## 612   2020-11-06                   London     12
## 613   2020-11-07                   London     21
## 614   2020-11-08                   London     15
## 615   2020-11-09                   London     28
## 616   2020-11-10                   London     14
## 617   2020-11-11                   London     15
## 618   2020-11-12                   London     16
## 619   2020-11-13                   London     14
## 620   2020-11-14                   London     21
## 621   2020-11-15                   London     18
## 622   2020-11-16                   London     29
## 623   2020-11-17                   London     29
## 624   2020-11-18                   London     23
## 625   2020-11-19                   London     24
## 626   2020-11-20                   London     20
## 627   2020-11-21                   London     19
## 628   2020-11-22                   London     29
## 629   2020-11-23                   London     19
## 630   2020-11-24                   London     27
## 631   2020-11-25                   London     30
## 632   2020-11-26                   London     25
## 633   2020-11-27                   London     28
## 634   2020-11-28                   London     23
## 635   2020-11-29                   London     40
## 636   2020-11-30                   London     19
## 637   2020-12-01                   London     28
## 638   2020-12-02                   London     30
## 639   2020-12-03                   London     27
## 640   2020-12-04                   London     30
## 641   2020-12-05                   London     26
## 642   2020-12-06                   London     25
## 643   2020-12-07                   London     29
## 644   2020-12-08                   London     35
## 645   2020-12-09                   London     28
## 646   2020-12-10                   London     31
## 647   2020-12-11                   London     27
## 648   2020-12-12                   London     33
## 649   2020-12-13                   London     33
## 650   2020-12-14                   London     39
## 651   2020-12-15                   London     49
## 652   2020-12-16                   London     37
## 653   2020-12-17                   London     57
## 654   2020-12-18                   London     43
## 655   2020-12-19                   London     41
## 656   2020-12-20                   London     54
## 657   2020-12-21                   London     60
## 658   2020-12-22                   London     59
## 659   2020-12-23                   London     57
## 660   2020-12-24                   London     65
## 661   2020-12-25                   London     82
## 662   2020-12-26                   London     82
## 663   2020-12-27                   London     92
## 664   2020-12-28                   London     89
## 665   2020-12-29                   London    110
## 666   2020-12-30                   London    100
## 667   2020-12-31                   London    110
## 668   2021-01-01                   London    114
## 669   2021-01-02                   London    126
## 670   2021-01-03                   London    107
## 671   2021-01-04                   London    148
## 672   2021-01-05                   London    145
## 673   2021-01-06                   London    146
## 674   2021-01-07                   London    157
## 675   2021-01-08                   London    138
## 676   2021-01-09                   London    146
## 677   2021-01-10                   London    160
## 678   2021-01-11                   London    159
## 679   2021-01-12                   London    170
## 680   2021-01-13                   London    165
## 681   2021-01-14                   London    154
## 682   2021-01-15                   London    144
## 683   2021-01-16                   London    158
## 684   2021-01-17                   London    168
## 685   2021-01-18                   London    182
## 686   2021-01-19                   London    180
## 687   2021-01-20                   London    156
## 688   2021-01-21                   London    178
## 689   2021-01-22                   London    139
## 690   2021-01-23                   London    140
## 691   2021-01-24                   London    128
## 692   2021-01-25                   London    125
## 693   2021-01-26                   London    118
## 694   2021-01-27                   London    111
## 695   2021-01-28                   London    108
## 696   2021-01-29                   London     94
## 697   2021-01-30                   London     88
## 698   2021-01-31                   London     89
## 699   2021-02-01                   London     77
## 700   2021-02-02                   London     99
## 701   2021-02-03                   London    106
## 702   2021-02-04                   London     63
## 703   2021-02-05                   London     85
## 704   2021-02-06                   London     61
## 705   2021-02-07                   London     67
## 706   2021-02-08                   London     66
## 707   2021-02-09                   London     56
## 708   2021-02-10                   London     68
## 709   2021-02-11                   London     47
## 710   2021-02-12                   London     51
## 711   2021-02-13                   London     43
## 712   2021-02-14                   London     42
## 713   2021-02-15                   London     36
## 714   2021-02-16                   London     47
## 715   2021-02-17                   London     42
## 716   2021-02-18                   London     40
## 717   2021-02-19                   London     39
## 718   2021-02-20                   London     27
## 719   2021-02-21                   London     33
## 720   2021-02-22                   London     23
## 721   2021-02-23                   London     11
## 722   2021-02-24                   London      3
## 723   2020-03-01                 Midlands      0
## 724   2020-03-02                 Midlands      0
## 725   2020-03-03                 Midlands      1
## 726   2020-03-04                 Midlands      0
## 727   2020-03-05                 Midlands      0
## 728   2020-03-06                 Midlands      0
## 729   2020-03-07                 Midlands      0
## 730   2020-03-08                 Midlands      2
## 731   2020-03-09                 Midlands      1
## 732   2020-03-10                 Midlands      0
## 733   2020-03-11                 Midlands      2
## 734   2020-03-12                 Midlands      6
## 735   2020-03-13                 Midlands      5
## 736   2020-03-14                 Midlands      4
## 737   2020-03-15                 Midlands      5
## 738   2020-03-16                 Midlands     11
## 739   2020-03-17                 Midlands      8
## 740   2020-03-18                 Midlands     13
## 741   2020-03-19                 Midlands      8
## 742   2020-03-20                 Midlands     28
## 743   2020-03-21                 Midlands     13
## 744   2020-03-22                 Midlands     31
## 745   2020-03-23                 Midlands     33
## 746   2020-03-24                 Midlands     41
## 747   2020-03-25                 Midlands     48
## 748   2020-03-26                 Midlands     64
## 749   2020-03-27                 Midlands     72
## 750   2020-03-28                 Midlands     89
## 751   2020-03-29                 Midlands     92
## 752   2020-03-30                 Midlands     90
## 753   2020-03-31                 Midlands    123
## 754   2020-04-01                 Midlands    140
## 755   2020-04-02                 Midlands    142
## 756   2020-04-03                 Midlands    124
## 757   2020-04-04                 Midlands    151
## 758   2020-04-05                 Midlands    164
## 759   2020-04-06                 Midlands    140
## 760   2020-04-07                 Midlands    123
## 761   2020-04-08                 Midlands    186
## 762   2020-04-09                 Midlands    140
## 763   2020-04-10                 Midlands    127
## 764   2020-04-11                 Midlands    142
## 765   2020-04-12                 Midlands    139
## 766   2020-04-13                 Midlands    120
## 767   2020-04-14                 Midlands    116
## 768   2020-04-15                 Midlands    147
## 769   2020-04-16                 Midlands    102
## 770   2020-04-17                 Midlands    118
## 771   2020-04-18                 Midlands    115
## 772   2020-04-19                 Midlands     93
## 773   2020-04-20                 Midlands    107
## 774   2020-04-21                 Midlands     86
## 775   2020-04-22                 Midlands     78
## 776   2020-04-23                 Midlands    103
## 777   2020-04-24                 Midlands     79
## 778   2020-04-25                 Midlands     72
## 779   2020-04-26                 Midlands     81
## 780   2020-04-27                 Midlands     74
## 781   2020-04-28                 Midlands     68
## 782   2020-04-29                 Midlands     53
## 783   2020-04-30                 Midlands     56
## 784   2020-05-01                 Midlands     64
## 785   2020-05-02                 Midlands     51
## 786   2020-05-03                 Midlands     52
## 787   2020-05-04                 Midlands     61
## 788   2020-05-05                 Midlands     59
## 789   2020-05-06                 Midlands     59
## 790   2020-05-07                 Midlands     48
## 791   2020-05-08                 Midlands     34
## 792   2020-05-09                 Midlands     37
## 793   2020-05-10                 Midlands     42
## 794   2020-05-11                 Midlands     33
## 795   2020-05-12                 Midlands     45
## 796   2020-05-13                 Midlands     40
## 797   2020-05-14                 Midlands     39
## 798   2020-05-15                 Midlands     40
## 799   2020-05-16                 Midlands     34
## 800   2020-05-17                 Midlands     31
## 801   2020-05-18                 Midlands     36
## 802   2020-05-19                 Midlands     35
## 803   2020-05-20                 Midlands     36
## 804   2020-05-21                 Midlands     32
## 805   2020-05-22                 Midlands     27
## 806   2020-05-23                 Midlands     34
## 807   2020-05-24                 Midlands     20
## 808   2020-05-25                 Midlands     26
## 809   2020-05-26                 Midlands     33
## 810   2020-05-27                 Midlands     29
## 811   2020-05-28                 Midlands     28
## 812   2020-05-29                 Midlands     20
## 813   2020-05-30                 Midlands     21
## 814   2020-05-31                 Midlands     22
## 815   2020-06-01                 Midlands     20
## 816   2020-06-02                 Midlands     22
## 817   2020-06-03                 Midlands     24
## 818   2020-06-04                 Midlands     16
## 819   2020-06-05                 Midlands     21
## 820   2020-06-06                 Midlands     20
## 821   2020-06-07                 Midlands     17
## 822   2020-06-08                 Midlands     16
## 823   2020-06-09                 Midlands     18
## 824   2020-06-10                 Midlands     15
## 825   2020-06-11                 Midlands     13
## 826   2020-06-12                 Midlands     12
## 827   2020-06-13                 Midlands      6
## 828   2020-06-14                 Midlands     18
## 829   2020-06-15                 Midlands     12
## 830   2020-06-16                 Midlands     15
## 831   2020-06-17                 Midlands     11
## 832   2020-06-18                 Midlands     15
## 833   2020-06-19                 Midlands     10
## 834   2020-06-20                 Midlands     15
## 835   2020-06-21                 Midlands     14
## 836   2020-06-22                 Midlands     14
## 837   2020-06-23                 Midlands     16
## 838   2020-06-24                 Midlands     15
## 839   2020-06-25                 Midlands     18
## 840   2020-06-26                 Midlands      5
## 841   2020-06-27                 Midlands      5
## 842   2020-06-28                 Midlands      7
## 843   2020-06-29                 Midlands      6
## 844   2020-06-30                 Midlands      6
## 845   2020-07-01                 Midlands      7
## 846   2020-07-02                 Midlands     10
## 847   2020-07-03                 Midlands      3
## 848   2020-07-04                 Midlands      4
## 849   2020-07-05                 Midlands      6
## 850   2020-07-06                 Midlands      5
## 851   2020-07-07                 Midlands      3
## 852   2020-07-08                 Midlands      5
## 853   2020-07-09                 Midlands      9
## 854   2020-07-10                 Midlands      3
## 855   2020-07-11                 Midlands      0
## 856   2020-07-12                 Midlands      5
## 857   2020-07-13                 Midlands      1
## 858   2020-07-14                 Midlands      1
## 859   2020-07-15                 Midlands      6
## 860   2020-07-16                 Midlands      2
## 861   2020-07-17                 Midlands      3
## 862   2020-07-18                 Midlands      3
## 863   2020-07-19                 Midlands      3
## 864   2020-07-20                 Midlands      3
## 865   2020-07-21                 Midlands      1
## 866   2020-07-22                 Midlands      2
## 867   2020-07-23                 Midlands      6
## 868   2020-07-24                 Midlands      1
## 869   2020-07-25                 Midlands      4
## 870   2020-07-26                 Midlands      4
## 871   2020-07-27                 Midlands      5
## 872   2020-07-28                 Midlands      1
## 873   2020-07-29                 Midlands      1
## 874   2020-07-30                 Midlands      1
## 875   2020-07-31                 Midlands      2
## 876   2020-08-01                 Midlands      0
## 877   2020-08-02                 Midlands      1
## 878   2020-08-03                 Midlands      2
## 879   2020-08-04                 Midlands      1
## 880   2020-08-05                 Midlands      1
## 881   2020-08-06                 Midlands      0
## 882   2020-08-07                 Midlands      3
## 883   2020-08-08                 Midlands      2
## 884   2020-08-09                 Midlands      0
## 885   2020-08-10                 Midlands      0
## 886   2020-08-11                 Midlands      2
## 887   2020-08-12                 Midlands      0
## 888   2020-08-13                 Midlands      0
## 889   2020-08-14                 Midlands      0
## 890   2020-08-15                 Midlands      1
## 891   2020-08-16                 Midlands      0
## 892   2020-08-17                 Midlands      0
## 893   2020-08-18                 Midlands      0
## 894   2020-08-19                 Midlands      0
## 895   2020-08-20                 Midlands      0
## 896   2020-08-21                 Midlands      1
## 897   2020-08-22                 Midlands      0
## 898   2020-08-23                 Midlands      0
## 899   2020-08-24                 Midlands      0
## 900   2020-08-25                 Midlands      2
## 901   2020-08-26                 Midlands      3
## 902   2020-08-27                 Midlands      2
## 903   2020-08-28                 Midlands      1
## 904   2020-08-29                 Midlands      0
## 905   2020-08-30                 Midlands      2
## 906   2020-08-31                 Midlands      1
## 907   2020-09-01                 Midlands      0
## 908   2020-09-02                 Midlands      2
## 909   2020-09-03                 Midlands      0
## 910   2020-09-04                 Midlands      0
## 911   2020-09-05                 Midlands      0
## 912   2020-09-06                 Midlands      1
## 913   2020-09-07                 Midlands      1
## 914   2020-09-08                 Midlands      3
## 915   2020-09-09                 Midlands      0
## 916   2020-09-10                 Midlands      1
## 917   2020-09-11                 Midlands      1
## 918   2020-09-12                 Midlands      2
## 919   2020-09-13                 Midlands      4
## 920   2020-09-14                 Midlands      1
## 921   2020-09-15                 Midlands      2
## 922   2020-09-16                 Midlands      3
## 923   2020-09-17                 Midlands      2
## 924   2020-09-18                 Midlands      5
## 925   2020-09-19                 Midlands      2
## 926   2020-09-20                 Midlands      7
## 927   2020-09-21                 Midlands      3
## 928   2020-09-22                 Midlands      4
## 929   2020-09-23                 Midlands     10
## 930   2020-09-24                 Midlands      7
## 931   2020-09-25                 Midlands      4
## 932   2020-09-26                 Midlands      5
## 933   2020-09-27                 Midlands      9
## 934   2020-09-28                 Midlands      6
## 935   2020-09-29                 Midlands      4
## 936   2020-09-30                 Midlands      5
## 937   2020-10-01                 Midlands      8
## 938   2020-10-02                 Midlands      7
## 939   2020-10-03                 Midlands      6
## 940   2020-10-04                 Midlands      7
## 941   2020-10-05                 Midlands      6
## 942   2020-10-06                 Midlands      5
## 943   2020-10-07                 Midlands      9
## 944   2020-10-08                 Midlands      8
## 945   2020-10-09                 Midlands      7
## 946   2020-10-10                 Midlands      2
## 947   2020-10-11                 Midlands     15
## 948   2020-10-12                 Midlands      7
## 949   2020-10-13                 Midlands     16
## 950   2020-10-14                 Midlands     12
## 951   2020-10-15                 Midlands     11
## 952   2020-10-16                 Midlands     18
## 953   2020-10-17                 Midlands     25
## 954   2020-10-18                 Midlands     11
## 955   2020-10-19                 Midlands     14
## 956   2020-10-20                 Midlands     19
## 957   2020-10-21                 Midlands     15
## 958   2020-10-22                 Midlands     34
## 959   2020-10-23                 Midlands     32
## 960   2020-10-24                 Midlands     24
## 961   2020-10-25                 Midlands     30
## 962   2020-10-26                 Midlands     33
## 963   2020-10-27                 Midlands     38
## 964   2020-10-28                 Midlands     30
## 965   2020-10-29                 Midlands     42
## 966   2020-10-30                 Midlands     42
## 967   2020-10-31                 Midlands     50
## 968   2020-11-01                 Midlands     44
## 969   2020-11-02                 Midlands     58
## 970   2020-11-03                 Midlands     37
## 971   2020-11-04                 Midlands     67
## 972   2020-11-05                 Midlands     50
## 973   2020-11-06                 Midlands     43
## 974   2020-11-07                 Midlands     60
## 975   2020-11-08                 Midlands     55
## 976   2020-11-09                 Midlands     67
## 977   2020-11-10                 Midlands     68
## 978   2020-11-11                 Midlands     58
## 979   2020-11-12                 Midlands     64
## 980   2020-11-13                 Midlands     47
## 981   2020-11-14                 Midlands     66
## 982   2020-11-15                 Midlands     72
## 983   2020-11-16                 Midlands     66
## 984   2020-11-17                 Midlands     66
## 985   2020-11-18                 Midlands     83
## 986   2020-11-19                 Midlands     72
## 987   2020-11-20                 Midlands     87
## 988   2020-11-21                 Midlands     59
## 989   2020-11-22                 Midlands     84
## 990   2020-11-23                 Midlands     80
## 991   2020-11-24                 Midlands     73
## 992   2020-11-25                 Midlands     74
## 993   2020-11-26                 Midlands     77
## 994   2020-11-27                 Midlands     78
## 995   2020-11-28                 Midlands     80
## 996   2020-11-29                 Midlands     86
## 997   2020-11-30                 Midlands     79
## 998   2020-12-01                 Midlands     74
## 999   2020-12-02                 Midlands     64
## 1000  2020-12-03                 Midlands     82
## 1001  2020-12-04                 Midlands     67
## 1002  2020-12-05                 Midlands     71
## 1003  2020-12-06                 Midlands     75
## 1004  2020-12-07                 Midlands     68
## 1005  2020-12-08                 Midlands     66
## 1006  2020-12-09                 Midlands     63
## 1007  2020-12-10                 Midlands     75
## 1008  2020-12-11                 Midlands     65
## 1009  2020-12-12                 Midlands     81
## 1010  2020-12-13                 Midlands     78
## 1011  2020-12-14                 Midlands     77
## 1012  2020-12-15                 Midlands     73
## 1013  2020-12-16                 Midlands     73
## 1014  2020-12-17                 Midlands     86
## 1015  2020-12-18                 Midlands     81
## 1016  2020-12-19                 Midlands     57
## 1017  2020-12-20                 Midlands     66
## 1018  2020-12-21                 Midlands     85
## 1019  2020-12-22                 Midlands     74
## 1020  2020-12-23                 Midlands     58
## 1021  2020-12-24                 Midlands     68
## 1022  2020-12-25                 Midlands     79
## 1023  2020-12-26                 Midlands     74
## 1024  2020-12-27                 Midlands     87
## 1025  2020-12-28                 Midlands     64
## 1026  2020-12-29                 Midlands     83
## 1027  2020-12-30                 Midlands    100
## 1028  2020-12-31                 Midlands     89
## 1029  2021-01-01                 Midlands     77
## 1030  2021-01-02                 Midlands     76
## 1031  2021-01-03                 Midlands     71
## 1032  2021-01-04                 Midlands     95
## 1033  2021-01-05                 Midlands    105
## 1034  2021-01-06                 Midlands    112
## 1035  2021-01-07                 Midlands    103
## 1036  2021-01-08                 Midlands    131
## 1037  2021-01-09                 Midlands    139
## 1038  2021-01-10                 Midlands    120
## 1039  2021-01-11                 Midlands    144
## 1040  2021-01-12                 Midlands    160
## 1041  2021-01-13                 Midlands    141
## 1042  2021-01-14                 Midlands    157
## 1043  2021-01-15                 Midlands    130
## 1044  2021-01-16                 Midlands    150
## 1045  2021-01-17                 Midlands    156
## 1046  2021-01-18                 Midlands    159
## 1047  2021-01-19                 Midlands    157
## 1048  2021-01-20                 Midlands    146
## 1049  2021-01-21                 Midlands    156
## 1050  2021-01-22                 Midlands    158
## 1051  2021-01-23                 Midlands    141
## 1052  2021-01-24                 Midlands    165
## 1053  2021-01-25                 Midlands    154
## 1054  2021-01-26                 Midlands    141
## 1055  2021-01-27                 Midlands    136
## 1056  2021-01-28                 Midlands    133
## 1057  2021-01-29                 Midlands    147
## 1058  2021-01-30                 Midlands    123
## 1059  2021-01-31                 Midlands    109
## 1060  2021-02-01                 Midlands    136
## 1061  2021-02-02                 Midlands    131
## 1062  2021-02-03                 Midlands    132
## 1063  2021-02-04                 Midlands    109
## 1064  2021-02-05                 Midlands    108
## 1065  2021-02-06                 Midlands     91
## 1066  2021-02-07                 Midlands    107
## 1067  2021-02-08                 Midlands     99
## 1068  2021-02-09                 Midlands     95
## 1069  2021-02-10                 Midlands     93
## 1070  2021-02-11                 Midlands     89
## 1071  2021-02-12                 Midlands     87
## 1072  2021-02-13                 Midlands     66
## 1073  2021-02-14                 Midlands     81
## 1074  2021-02-15                 Midlands     84
## 1075  2021-02-16                 Midlands     74
## 1076  2021-02-17                 Midlands     65
## 1077  2021-02-18                 Midlands     65
## 1078  2021-02-19                 Midlands     51
## 1079  2021-02-20                 Midlands     61
## 1080  2021-02-21                 Midlands     51
## 1081  2021-02-22                 Midlands     48
## 1082  2021-02-23                 Midlands     44
## 1083  2021-02-24                 Midlands      7
## 1084  2020-03-01 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1085  2020-03-02 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1086  2020-03-03 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1087  2020-03-04 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1088  2020-03-05 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1089  2020-03-06 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1090  2020-03-07 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1091  2020-03-08 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1092  2020-03-09 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1093  2020-03-10 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1094  2020-03-11 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1095  2020-03-12 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1096  2020-03-13 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1097  2020-03-14 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1098  2020-03-15 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1099  2020-03-16 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1100  2020-03-17 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1101  2020-03-18 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1102  2020-03-19 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1103  2020-03-20 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1104  2020-03-21 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1105  2020-03-22 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1106  2020-03-23 North East and Yorkshire      9
## 1107  2020-03-24 North East and Yorkshire      8
## 1108  2020-03-25 North East and Yorkshire     18
## 1109  2020-03-26 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1110  2020-03-27 North East and Yorkshire     28
## 1111  2020-03-28 North East and Yorkshire     35
## 1112  2020-03-29 North East and Yorkshire     38
## 1113  2020-03-30 North East and Yorkshire     64
## 1114  2020-03-31 North East and Yorkshire     60
## 1115  2020-04-01 North East and Yorkshire     67
## 1116  2020-04-02 North East and Yorkshire     75
## 1117  2020-04-03 North East and Yorkshire    100
## 1118  2020-04-04 North East and Yorkshire    105
## 1119  2020-04-05 North East and Yorkshire     92
## 1120  2020-04-06 North East and Yorkshire     96
## 1121  2020-04-07 North East and Yorkshire    102
## 1122  2020-04-08 North East and Yorkshire    107
## 1123  2020-04-09 North East and Yorkshire    111
## 1124  2020-04-10 North East and Yorkshire    117
## 1125  2020-04-11 North East and Yorkshire     98
## 1126  2020-04-12 North East and Yorkshire     84
## 1127  2020-04-13 North East and Yorkshire     94
## 1128  2020-04-14 North East and Yorkshire    107
## 1129  2020-04-15 North East and Yorkshire     96
## 1130  2020-04-16 North East and Yorkshire    103
## 1131  2020-04-17 North East and Yorkshire     88
## 1132  2020-04-18 North East and Yorkshire     95
## 1133  2020-04-19 North East and Yorkshire     88
## 1134  2020-04-20 North East and Yorkshire    100
## 1135  2020-04-21 North East and Yorkshire     76
## 1136  2020-04-22 North East and Yorkshire     84
## 1137  2020-04-23 North East and Yorkshire     63
## 1138  2020-04-24 North East and Yorkshire     72
## 1139  2020-04-25 North East and Yorkshire     69
## 1140  2020-04-26 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1141  2020-04-27 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1142  2020-04-28 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1143  2020-04-29 North East and Yorkshire     69
## 1144  2020-04-30 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1145  2020-05-01 North East and Yorkshire     64
## 1146  2020-05-02 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1147  2020-05-03 North East and Yorkshire     40
## 1148  2020-05-04 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1149  2020-05-05 North East and Yorkshire     40
## 1150  2020-05-06 North East and Yorkshire     51
## 1151  2020-05-07 North East and Yorkshire     45
## 1152  2020-05-08 North East and Yorkshire     42
## 1153  2020-05-09 North East and Yorkshire     44
## 1154  2020-05-10 North East and Yorkshire     40
## 1155  2020-05-11 North East and Yorkshire     29
## 1156  2020-05-12 North East and Yorkshire     27
## 1157  2020-05-13 North East and Yorkshire     28
## 1158  2020-05-14 North East and Yorkshire     31
## 1159  2020-05-15 North East and Yorkshire     32
## 1160  2020-05-16 North East and Yorkshire     35
## 1161  2020-05-17 North East and Yorkshire     26
## 1162  2020-05-18 North East and Yorkshire     30
## 1163  2020-05-19 North East and Yorkshire     27
## 1164  2020-05-20 North East and Yorkshire     22
## 1165  2020-05-21 North East and Yorkshire     33
## 1166  2020-05-22 North East and Yorkshire     22
## 1167  2020-05-23 North East and Yorkshire     18
## 1168  2020-05-24 North East and Yorkshire     26
## 1169  2020-05-25 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1170  2020-05-26 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1171  2020-05-27 North East and Yorkshire     23
## 1172  2020-05-28 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1173  2020-05-29 North East and Yorkshire     25
## 1174  2020-05-30 North East and Yorkshire     20
## 1175  2020-05-31 North East and Yorkshire     20
## 1176  2020-06-01 North East and Yorkshire     17
## 1177  2020-06-02 North East and Yorkshire     23
## 1178  2020-06-03 North East and Yorkshire     24
## 1179  2020-06-04 North East and Yorkshire     17
## 1180  2020-06-05 North East and Yorkshire     18
## 1181  2020-06-06 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1182  2020-06-07 North East and Yorkshire     14
## 1183  2020-06-08 North East and Yorkshire     11
## 1184  2020-06-09 North East and Yorkshire     12
## 1185  2020-06-10 North East and Yorkshire     19
## 1186  2020-06-11 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1187  2020-06-12 North East and Yorkshire      9
## 1188  2020-06-13 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1189  2020-06-14 North East and Yorkshire     11
## 1190  2020-06-15 North East and Yorkshire      9
## 1191  2020-06-16 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1192  2020-06-17 North East and Yorkshire      9
## 1193  2020-06-18 North East and Yorkshire     11
## 1194  2020-06-19 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1195  2020-06-20 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1196  2020-06-21 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1197  2020-06-22 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1198  2020-06-23 North East and Yorkshire      8
## 1199  2020-06-24 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1200  2020-06-25 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1201  2020-06-26 North East and Yorkshire      8
## 1202  2020-06-27 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1203  2020-06-28 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1204  2020-06-29 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1205  2020-06-30 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1206  2020-07-01 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1207  2020-07-02 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1208  2020-07-03 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1209  2020-07-04 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1210  2020-07-05 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1211  2020-07-06 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1212  2020-07-07 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1213  2020-07-08 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1214  2020-07-09 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1215  2020-07-10 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1216  2020-07-11 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1217  2020-07-12 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1218  2020-07-13 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1219  2020-07-14 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1220  2020-07-15 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1221  2020-07-16 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1222  2020-07-17 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1223  2020-07-18 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1224  2020-07-19 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1225  2020-07-20 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1226  2020-07-21 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1227  2020-07-22 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1228  2020-07-23 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1229  2020-07-24 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1230  2020-07-25 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1231  2020-07-26 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1232  2020-07-27 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1233  2020-07-28 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1234  2020-07-29 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1235  2020-07-30 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1236  2020-07-31 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1237  2020-08-01 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1238  2020-08-02 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1239  2020-08-03 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1240  2020-08-04 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1241  2020-08-05 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1242  2020-08-06 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1243  2020-08-07 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1244  2020-08-08 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1245  2020-08-09 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1246  2020-08-10 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1247  2020-08-11 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1248  2020-08-12 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1249  2020-08-13 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1250  2020-08-14 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1251  2020-08-15 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1252  2020-08-16 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1253  2020-08-17 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1254  2020-08-18 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1255  2020-08-19 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1256  2020-08-20 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1257  2020-08-21 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1258  2020-08-22 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1259  2020-08-23 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1260  2020-08-24 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1261  2020-08-25 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1262  2020-08-26 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1263  2020-08-27 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1264  2020-08-28 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1265  2020-08-29 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1266  2020-08-30 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1267  2020-08-31 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1268  2020-09-01 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1269  2020-09-02 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1270  2020-09-03 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1271  2020-09-04 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1272  2020-09-05 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1273  2020-09-06 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1274  2020-09-07 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1275  2020-09-08 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1276  2020-09-09 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1277  2020-09-10 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1278  2020-09-11 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1279  2020-09-12 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1280  2020-09-13 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1281  2020-09-14 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1282  2020-09-15 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1283  2020-09-16 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1284  2020-09-17 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1285  2020-09-18 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1286  2020-09-19 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1287  2020-09-20 North East and Yorkshire      9
## 1288  2020-09-21 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1289  2020-09-22 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1290  2020-09-23 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1291  2020-09-24 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1292  2020-09-25 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1293  2020-09-26 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1294  2020-09-27 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1295  2020-09-28 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1296  2020-09-29 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1297  2020-09-30 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1298  2020-10-01 North East and Yorkshire      8
## 1299  2020-10-02 North East and Yorkshire     16
## 1300  2020-10-03 North East and Yorkshire     12
## 1301  2020-10-04 North East and Yorkshire     13
## 1302  2020-10-05 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1303  2020-10-06 North East and Yorkshire     15
## 1304  2020-10-07 North East and Yorkshire     13
## 1305  2020-10-08 North East and Yorkshire     16
## 1306  2020-10-09 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1307  2020-10-10 North East and Yorkshire     16
## 1308  2020-10-11 North East and Yorkshire     16
## 1309  2020-10-12 North East and Yorkshire     15
## 1310  2020-10-13 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1311  2020-10-14 North East and Yorkshire     20
## 1312  2020-10-15 North East and Yorkshire     23
## 1313  2020-10-16 North East and Yorkshire     24
## 1314  2020-10-17 North East and Yorkshire     34
## 1315  2020-10-18 North East and Yorkshire     22
## 1316  2020-10-19 North East and Yorkshire     34
## 1317  2020-10-20 North East and Yorkshire     37
## 1318  2020-10-21 North East and Yorkshire     43
## 1319  2020-10-22 North East and Yorkshire     33
## 1320  2020-10-23 North East and Yorkshire     31
## 1321  2020-10-24 North East and Yorkshire     34
## 1322  2020-10-25 North East and Yorkshire     35
## 1323  2020-10-26 North East and Yorkshire     46
## 1324  2020-10-27 North East and Yorkshire     45
## 1325  2020-10-28 North East and Yorkshire     39
## 1326  2020-10-29 North East and Yorkshire     51
## 1327  2020-10-30 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1328  2020-10-31 North East and Yorkshire     58
## 1329  2020-11-01 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1330  2020-11-02 North East and Yorkshire     50
## 1331  2020-11-03 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1332  2020-11-04 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1333  2020-11-05 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1334  2020-11-06 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1335  2020-11-07 North East and Yorkshire     75
## 1336  2020-11-08 North East and Yorkshire     62
## 1337  2020-11-09 North East and Yorkshire     87
## 1338  2020-11-10 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1339  2020-11-11 North East and Yorkshire     59
## 1340  2020-11-12 North East and Yorkshire     77
## 1341  2020-11-13 North East and Yorkshire     78
## 1342  2020-11-14 North East and Yorkshire     72
## 1343  2020-11-15 North East and Yorkshire     77
## 1344  2020-11-16 North East and Yorkshire     52
## 1345  2020-11-17 North East and Yorkshire     68
## 1346  2020-11-18 North East and Yorkshire     81
## 1347  2020-11-19 North East and Yorkshire     72
## 1348  2020-11-20 North East and Yorkshire     75
## 1349  2020-11-21 North East and Yorkshire     54
## 1350  2020-11-22 North East and Yorkshire     80
## 1351  2020-11-23 North East and Yorkshire     84
## 1352  2020-11-24 North East and Yorkshire     81
## 1353  2020-11-25 North East and Yorkshire     70
## 1354  2020-11-26 North East and Yorkshire     64
## 1355  2020-11-27 North East and Yorkshire     62
## 1356  2020-11-28 North East and Yorkshire     77
## 1357  2020-11-29 North East and Yorkshire     61
## 1358  2020-11-30 North East and Yorkshire     56
## 1359  2020-12-01 North East and Yorkshire     44
## 1360  2020-12-02 North East and Yorkshire     59
## 1361  2020-12-03 North East and Yorkshire     71
## 1362  2020-12-04 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1363  2020-12-05 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1364  2020-12-06 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1365  2020-12-07 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1366  2020-12-08 North East and Yorkshire     54
## 1367  2020-12-09 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1368  2020-12-10 North East and Yorkshire     56
## 1369  2020-12-11 North East and Yorkshire     56
## 1370  2020-12-12 North East and Yorkshire     55
## 1371  2020-12-13 North East and Yorkshire     51
## 1372  2020-12-14 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1373  2020-12-15 North East and Yorkshire     55
## 1374  2020-12-16 North East and Yorkshire     40
## 1375  2020-12-17 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1376  2020-12-18 North East and Yorkshire     58
## 1377  2020-12-19 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1378  2020-12-20 North East and Yorkshire     52
## 1379  2020-12-21 North East and Yorkshire     35
## 1380  2020-12-22 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1381  2020-12-23 North East and Yorkshire     60
## 1382  2020-12-24 North East and Yorkshire     50
## 1383  2020-12-25 North East and Yorkshire     56
## 1384  2020-12-26 North East and Yorkshire     67
## 1385  2020-12-27 North East and Yorkshire     73
## 1386  2020-12-28 North East and Yorkshire     64
## 1387  2020-12-29 North East and Yorkshire     58
## 1388  2020-12-30 North East and Yorkshire     41
## 1389  2020-12-31 North East and Yorkshire     51
## 1390  2021-01-01 North East and Yorkshire     70
## 1391  2021-01-02 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1392  2021-01-03 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1393  2021-01-04 North East and Yorkshire     63
## 1394  2021-01-05 North East and Yorkshire     64
## 1395  2021-01-06 North East and Yorkshire     61
## 1396  2021-01-07 North East and Yorkshire     72
## 1397  2021-01-08 North East and Yorkshire     67
## 1398  2021-01-09 North East and Yorkshire     58
## 1399  2021-01-10 North East and Yorkshire     79
## 1400  2021-01-11 North East and Yorkshire     82
## 1401  2021-01-12 North East and Yorkshire     68
## 1402  2021-01-13 North East and Yorkshire     76
## 1403  2021-01-14 North East and Yorkshire     69
## 1404  2021-01-15 North East and Yorkshire     97
## 1405  2021-01-16 North East and Yorkshire     99
## 1406  2021-01-17 North East and Yorkshire     74
## 1407  2021-01-18 North East and Yorkshire     82
## 1408  2021-01-19 North East and Yorkshire    104
## 1409  2021-01-20 North East and Yorkshire     92
## 1410  2021-01-21 North East and Yorkshire     87
## 1411  2021-01-22 North East and Yorkshire     78
## 1412  2021-01-23 North East and Yorkshire     68
## 1413  2021-01-24 North East and Yorkshire     62
## 1414  2021-01-25 North East and Yorkshire     79
## 1415  2021-01-26 North East and Yorkshire     73
## 1416  2021-01-27 North East and Yorkshire     66
## 1417  2021-01-28 North East and Yorkshire     70
## 1418  2021-01-29 North East and Yorkshire     78
## 1419  2021-01-30 North East and Yorkshire     71
## 1420  2021-01-31 North East and Yorkshire     75
## 1421  2021-02-01 North East and Yorkshire     75
## 1422  2021-02-02 North East and Yorkshire     67
## 1423  2021-02-03 North East and Yorkshire     76
## 1424  2021-02-04 North East and Yorkshire     66
## 1425  2021-02-05 North East and Yorkshire     74
## 1426  2021-02-06 North East and Yorkshire     51
## 1427  2021-02-07 North East and Yorkshire     55
## 1428  2021-02-08 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1429  2021-02-09 North East and Yorkshire     47
## 1430  2021-02-10 North East and Yorkshire     59
## 1431  2021-02-11 North East and Yorkshire     59
## 1432  2021-02-12 North East and Yorkshire     54
## 1433  2021-02-13 North East and Yorkshire     50
## 1434  2021-02-14 North East and Yorkshire     56
## 1435  2021-02-15 North East and Yorkshire     55
## 1436  2021-02-16 North East and Yorkshire     40
## 1437  2021-02-17 North East and Yorkshire     47
## 1438  2021-02-18 North East and Yorkshire     40
## 1439  2021-02-19 North East and Yorkshire     41
## 1440  2021-02-20 North East and Yorkshire     36
## 1441  2021-02-21 North East and Yorkshire     38
## 1442  2021-02-22 North East and Yorkshire     19
## 1443  2021-02-23 North East and Yorkshire     30
## 1444  2021-02-24 North East and Yorkshire      8
## 1445  2020-03-01               North West      0
## 1446  2020-03-02               North West      0
## 1447  2020-03-03               North West      0
## 1448  2020-03-04               North West      0
## 1449  2020-03-05               North West      1
## 1450  2020-03-06               North West      0
## 1451  2020-03-07               North West      0
## 1452  2020-03-08               North West      1
## 1453  2020-03-09               North West      0
## 1454  2020-03-10               North West      0
## 1455  2020-03-11               North West      0
## 1456  2020-03-12               North West      2
## 1457  2020-03-13               North West      3
## 1458  2020-03-14               North West      1
## 1459  2020-03-15               North West      4
## 1460  2020-03-16               North West      2
## 1461  2020-03-17               North West      4
## 1462  2020-03-18               North West      6
## 1463  2020-03-19               North West      7
## 1464  2020-03-20               North West     10
## 1465  2020-03-21               North West     11
## 1466  2020-03-22               North West     13
## 1467  2020-03-23               North West     15
## 1468  2020-03-24               North West     21
## 1469  2020-03-25               North West     21
## 1470  2020-03-26               North West     29
## 1471  2020-03-27               North West     36
## 1472  2020-03-28               North West     28
## 1473  2020-03-29               North West     46
## 1474  2020-03-30               North West     67
## 1475  2020-03-31               North West     52
## 1476  2020-04-01               North West     86
## 1477  2020-04-02               North West     96
## 1478  2020-04-03               North West     95
## 1479  2020-04-04               North West     98
## 1480  2020-04-05               North West    102
## 1481  2020-04-06               North West    100
## 1482  2020-04-07               North West    136
## 1483  2020-04-08               North West    127
## 1484  2020-04-09               North West    119
## 1485  2020-04-10               North West    117
## 1486  2020-04-11               North West    138
## 1487  2020-04-12               North West    125
## 1488  2020-04-13               North West    130
## 1489  2020-04-14               North West    130
## 1490  2020-04-15               North West    114
## 1491  2020-04-16               North West    135
## 1492  2020-04-17               North West     98
## 1493  2020-04-18               North West    114
## 1494  2020-04-19               North West     71
## 1495  2020-04-20               North West     83
## 1496  2020-04-21               North West     76
## 1497  2020-04-22               North West     87
## 1498  2020-04-23               North West     85
## 1499  2020-04-24               North West     67
## 1500  2020-04-25               North West     67
## 1501  2020-04-26               North West     55
## 1502  2020-04-27               North West     54
## 1503  2020-04-28               North West     57
## 1504  2020-04-29               North West     64
## 1505  2020-04-30               North West     60
## 1506  2020-05-01               North West     45
## 1507  2020-05-02               North West     56
## 1508  2020-05-03               North West     55
## 1509  2020-05-04               North West     48
## 1510  2020-05-05               North West     49
## 1511  2020-05-06               North West     44
## 1512  2020-05-07               North West     50
## 1513  2020-05-08               North West     43
## 1514  2020-05-09               North West     31
## 1515  2020-05-10               North West     42
## 1516  2020-05-11               North West     35
## 1517  2020-05-12               North West     38
## 1518  2020-05-13               North West     25
## 1519  2020-05-14               North West     26
## 1520  2020-05-15               North West     33
## 1521  2020-05-16               North West     32
## 1522  2020-05-17               North West     24
## 1523  2020-05-18               North West     31
## 1524  2020-05-19               North West     35
## 1525  2020-05-20               North West     27
## 1526  2020-05-21               North West     28
## 1527  2020-05-22               North West     26
## 1528  2020-05-23               North West     31
## 1529  2020-05-24               North West     26
## 1530  2020-05-25               North West     31
## 1531  2020-05-26               North West     27
## 1532  2020-05-27               North West     27
## 1533  2020-05-28               North West     28
## 1534  2020-05-29               North West     20
## 1535  2020-05-30               North West     19
## 1536  2020-05-31               North West     13
## 1537  2020-06-01               North West     12
## 1538  2020-06-02               North West     27
## 1539  2020-06-03               North West     22
## 1540  2020-06-04               North West     22
## 1541  2020-06-05               North West     16
## 1542  2020-06-06               North West     26
## 1543  2020-06-07               North West     20
## 1544  2020-06-08               North West     23
## 1545  2020-06-09               North West     17
## 1546  2020-06-10               North West     16
## 1547  2020-06-11               North West     16
## 1548  2020-06-12               North West     11
## 1549  2020-06-13               North West     10
## 1550  2020-06-14               North West     15
## 1551  2020-06-15               North West     16
## 1552  2020-06-16               North West     16
## 1553  2020-06-17               North West     13
## 1554  2020-06-18               North West     14
## 1555  2020-06-19               North West      7
## 1556  2020-06-20               North West     11
## 1557  2020-06-21               North West      8
## 1558  2020-06-22               North West     11
## 1559  2020-06-23               North West     13
## 1560  2020-06-24               North West     13
## 1561  2020-06-25               North West     15
## 1562  2020-06-26               North West      6
## 1563  2020-06-27               North West      7
## 1564  2020-06-28               North West      9
## 1565  2020-06-29               North West      9
## 1566  2020-06-30               North West      7
## 1567  2020-07-01               North West      3
## 1568  2020-07-02               North West      6
## 1569  2020-07-03               North West      7
## 1570  2020-07-04               North West      4
## 1571  2020-07-05               North West      6
## 1572  2020-07-06               North West      9
## 1573  2020-07-07               North West      8
## 1574  2020-07-08               North West      5
## 1575  2020-07-09               North West     10
## 1576  2020-07-10               North West      2
## 1577  2020-07-11               North West      5
## 1578  2020-07-12               North West      0
## 1579  2020-07-13               North West      6
## 1580  2020-07-14               North West      4
## 1581  2020-07-15               North West      5
## 1582  2020-07-16               North West      2
## 1583  2020-07-17               North West      4
## 1584  2020-07-18               North West      5
## 1585  2020-07-19               North West      3
## 1586  2020-07-20               North West      0
## 1587  2020-07-21               North West      2
## 1588  2020-07-22               North West      3
## 1589  2020-07-23               North West      3
## 1590  2020-07-24               North West      1
## 1591  2020-07-25               North West      1
## 1592  2020-07-26               North West      3
## 1593  2020-07-27               North West      1
## 1594  2020-07-28               North West      1
## 1595  2020-07-29               North West      2
## 1596  2020-07-30               North West      2
## 1597  2020-07-31               North West      0
## 1598  2020-08-01               North West      2
## 1599  2020-08-02               North West      1
## 1600  2020-08-03               North West      8
## 1601  2020-08-04               North West      3
## 1602  2020-08-05               North West      2
## 1603  2020-08-06               North West      2
## 1604  2020-08-07               North West      2
## 1605  2020-08-08               North West      2
## 1606  2020-08-09               North West      3
## 1607  2020-08-10               North West      2
## 1608  2020-08-11               North West      3
## 1609  2020-08-12               North West      0
## 1610  2020-08-13               North West      2
## 1611  2020-08-14               North West      2
## 1612  2020-08-15               North West      6
## 1613  2020-08-16               North West      2
## 1614  2020-08-17               North West      1
## 1615  2020-08-18               North West      2
## 1616  2020-08-19               North West      1
## 1617  2020-08-20               North West      1
## 1618  2020-08-21               North West      4
## 1619  2020-08-22               North West      3
## 1620  2020-08-23               North West      5
## 1621  2020-08-24               North West      4
## 1622  2020-08-25               North West      3
## 1623  2020-08-26               North West      4
## 1624  2020-08-27               North West      1
## 1625  2020-08-28               North West      2
## 1626  2020-08-29               North West      0
## 1627  2020-08-30               North West      2
## 1628  2020-08-31               North West      3
## 1629  2020-09-01               North West      0
## 1630  2020-09-02               North West      2
## 1631  2020-09-03               North West      1
## 1632  2020-09-04               North West      3
## 1633  2020-09-05               North West      6
## 1634  2020-09-06               North West      1
## 1635  2020-09-07               North West      8
## 1636  2020-09-08               North West      6
## 1637  2020-09-09               North West      5
## 1638  2020-09-10               North West      5
## 1639  2020-09-11               North West      1
## 1640  2020-09-12               North West      4
## 1641  2020-09-13               North West      2
## 1642  2020-09-14               North West      4
## 1643  2020-09-15               North West      4
## 1644  2020-09-16               North West      6
## 1645  2020-09-17               North West      7
## 1646  2020-09-18               North West      6
## 1647  2020-09-19               North West      3
## 1648  2020-09-20               North West      2
## 1649  2020-09-21               North West      2
## 1650  2020-09-22               North West      9
## 1651  2020-09-23               North West     14
## 1652  2020-09-24               North West     10
## 1653  2020-09-25               North West      8
## 1654  2020-09-26               North West     14
## 1655  2020-09-27               North West     11
## 1656  2020-09-28               North West     15
## 1657  2020-09-29               North West     12
## 1658  2020-09-30               North West     17
## 1659  2020-10-01               North West     17
## 1660  2020-10-02               North West     20
## 1661  2020-10-03               North West     15
## 1662  2020-10-04               North West     15
## 1663  2020-10-05               North West     15
## 1664  2020-10-06               North West     20
## 1665  2020-10-07               North West     20
## 1666  2020-10-08               North West     22
## 1667  2020-10-09               North West     24
## 1668  2020-10-10               North West     31
## 1669  2020-10-11               North West     31
## 1670  2020-10-12               North West     35
## 1671  2020-10-13               North West     26
## 1672  2020-10-14               North West     35
## 1673  2020-10-15               North West     36
## 1674  2020-10-16               North West     34
## 1675  2020-10-17               North West     52
## 1676  2020-10-18               North West     40
## 1677  2020-10-19               North West     43
## 1678  2020-10-20               North West     48
## 1679  2020-10-21               North West     51
## 1680  2020-10-22               North West     49
## 1681  2020-10-23               North West     50
## 1682  2020-10-24               North West     51
## 1683  2020-10-25               North West     63
## 1684  2020-10-26               North West     53
## 1685  2020-10-27               North West     49
## 1686  2020-10-28               North West     57
## 1687  2020-10-29               North West     74
## 1688  2020-10-30               North West     73
## 1689  2020-10-31               North West     63
## 1690  2020-11-01               North West     76
## 1691  2020-11-02               North West     65
## 1692  2020-11-03               North West     76
## 1693  2020-11-04               North West     64
## 1694  2020-11-05               North West     67
## 1695  2020-11-06               North West     76
## 1696  2020-11-07               North West     79
## 1697  2020-11-08               North West     83
## 1698  2020-11-09               North West     82
## 1699  2020-11-10               North West     68
## 1700  2020-11-11               North West     62
## 1701  2020-11-12               North West     64
## 1702  2020-11-13               North West     81
## 1703  2020-11-14               North West     61
## 1704  2020-11-15               North West     75
## 1705  2020-11-16               North West     74
## 1706  2020-11-17               North West     73
## 1707  2020-11-18               North West     71
## 1708  2020-11-19               North West     67
## 1709  2020-11-20               North West     52
## 1710  2020-11-21               North West     68
## 1711  2020-11-22               North West     52
## 1712  2020-11-23               North West     54
## 1713  2020-11-24               North West     64
## 1714  2020-11-25               North West     65
## 1715  2020-11-26               North West     53
## 1716  2020-11-27               North West     51
## 1717  2020-11-28               North West     46
## 1718  2020-11-29               North West     54
## 1719  2020-11-30               North West     48
## 1720  2020-12-01               North West     53
## 1721  2020-12-02               North West     48
## 1722  2020-12-03               North West     46
## 1723  2020-12-04               North West     48
## 1724  2020-12-05               North West     37
## 1725  2020-12-06               North West     43
## 1726  2020-12-07               North West     50
## 1727  2020-12-08               North West     49
## 1728  2020-12-09               North West     48
## 1729  2020-12-10               North West     49
## 1730  2020-12-11               North West     41
## 1731  2020-12-12               North West     48
## 1732  2020-12-13               North West     41
## 1733  2020-12-14               North West     51
## 1734  2020-12-15               North West     34
## 1735  2020-12-16               North West     41
## 1736  2020-12-17               North West     26
## 1737  2020-12-18               North West     47
## 1738  2020-12-19               North West     45
## 1739  2020-12-20               North West     37
## 1740  2020-12-21               North West     51
## 1741  2020-12-22               North West     52
## 1742  2020-12-23               North West     50
## 1743  2020-12-24               North West     58
## 1744  2020-12-25               North West     52
## 1745  2020-12-26               North West     56
## 1746  2020-12-27               North West     50
## 1747  2020-12-28               North West     48
## 1748  2020-12-29               North West     49
## 1749  2020-12-30               North West     49
## 1750  2020-12-31               North West     62
## 1751  2021-01-01               North West     54
## 1752  2021-01-02               North West     55
## 1753  2021-01-03               North West     57
## 1754  2021-01-04               North West     51
## 1755  2021-01-05               North West     55
## 1756  2021-01-06               North West     68
## 1757  2021-01-07               North West     61
## 1758  2021-01-08               North West     63
## 1759  2021-01-09               North West     65
## 1760  2021-01-10               North West     65
## 1761  2021-01-11               North West     79
## 1762  2021-01-12               North West     63
## 1763  2021-01-13               North West     84
## 1764  2021-01-14               North West     91
## 1765  2021-01-15               North West     83
## 1766  2021-01-16               North West     81
## 1767  2021-01-17               North West     79
## 1768  2021-01-18               North West     92
## 1769  2021-01-19               North West     91
## 1770  2021-01-20               North West     85
## 1771  2021-01-21               North West     84
## 1772  2021-01-22               North West    105
## 1773  2021-01-23               North West    100
## 1774  2021-01-24               North West     92
## 1775  2021-01-25               North West     82
## 1776  2021-01-26               North West     96
## 1777  2021-01-27               North West    103
## 1778  2021-01-28               North West     97
## 1779  2021-01-29               North West     91
## 1780  2021-01-30               North West     76
## 1781  2021-01-31               North West     83
## 1782  2021-02-01               North West     93
## 1783  2021-02-02               North West     80
## 1784  2021-02-03               North West     67
## 1785  2021-02-04               North West     75
## 1786  2021-02-05               North West     64
## 1787  2021-02-06               North West     57
## 1788  2021-02-07               North West     51
## 1789  2021-02-08               North West     73
## 1790  2021-02-09               North West     68
## 1791  2021-02-10               North West     71
## 1792  2021-02-11               North West     66
## 1793  2021-02-12               North West     67
## 1794  2021-02-13               North West     60
## 1795  2021-02-14               North West     50
## 1796  2021-02-15               North West     54
## 1797  2021-02-16               North West     50
## 1798  2021-02-17               North West     55
## 1799  2021-02-18               North West     49
## 1800  2021-02-19               North West     35
## 1801  2021-02-20               North West     28
## 1802  2021-02-21               North West     32
## 1803  2021-02-22               North West     23
## 1804  2021-02-23               North West     18
## 1805  2021-02-24               North West      6
## 1806  2020-03-01               South East      0
## 1807  2020-03-02               South East      0
## 1808  2020-03-03               South East      1
## 1809  2020-03-04               South East      0
## 1810  2020-03-05               South East      1
## 1811  2020-03-06               South East      0
## 1812  2020-03-07               South East      0
## 1813  2020-03-08               South East      1
## 1814  2020-03-09               South East      1
## 1815  2020-03-10               South East      1
## 1816  2020-03-11               South East      1
## 1817  2020-03-12               South East      0
## 1818  2020-03-13               South East      1
## 1819  2020-03-14               South East      1
## 1820  2020-03-15               South East      5
## 1821  2020-03-16               South East      8
## 1822  2020-03-17               South East      7
## 1823  2020-03-18               South East     10
## 1824  2020-03-19               South East      9
## 1825  2020-03-20               South East     13
## 1826  2020-03-21               South East      7
## 1827  2020-03-22               South East     25
## 1828  2020-03-23               South East     20
## 1829  2020-03-24               South East     22
## 1830  2020-03-25               South East     29
## 1831  2020-03-26               South East     35
## 1832  2020-03-27               South East     36
## 1833  2020-03-28               South East     36
## 1834  2020-03-29               South East     55
## 1835  2020-03-30               South East     58
## 1836  2020-03-31               South East     65
## 1837  2020-04-01               South East     66
## 1838  2020-04-02               South East     55
## 1839  2020-04-03               South East     72
## 1840  2020-04-04               South East     80
## 1841  2020-04-05               South East     82
## 1842  2020-04-06               South East     88
## 1843  2020-04-07               South East    100
## 1844  2020-04-08               South East     83
## 1845  2020-04-09               South East    104
## 1846  2020-04-10               South East     88
## 1847  2020-04-11               South East     88
## 1848  2020-04-12               South East     88
## 1849  2020-04-13               South East     84
## 1850  2020-04-14               South East     65
## 1851  2020-04-15               South East     72
## 1852  2020-04-16               South East     56
## 1853  2020-04-17               South East     86
## 1854  2020-04-18               South East     57
## 1855  2020-04-19               South East     70
## 1856  2020-04-20               South East     87
## 1857  2020-04-21               South East     51
## 1858  2020-04-22               South East     54
## 1859  2020-04-23               South East     57
## 1860  2020-04-24               South East     64
## 1861  2020-04-25               South East     51
## 1862  2020-04-26               South East     51
## 1863  2020-04-27               South East     41
## 1864  2020-04-28               South East     40
## 1865  2020-04-29               South East     47
## 1866  2020-04-30               South East     29
## 1867  2020-05-01               South East     37
## 1868  2020-05-02               South East     36
## 1869  2020-05-03               South East     17
## 1870  2020-05-04               South East     35
## 1871  2020-05-05               South East     29
## 1872  2020-05-06               South East     25
## 1873  2020-05-07               South East     27
## 1874  2020-05-08               South East     26
## 1875  2020-05-09               South East     28
## 1876  2020-05-10               South East     19
## 1877  2020-05-11               South East     25
## 1878  2020-05-12               South East     27
## 1879  2020-05-13               South East     18
## 1880  2020-05-14               South East     32
## 1881  2020-05-15               South East     25
## 1882  2020-05-16               South East     22
## 1883  2020-05-17               South East     18
## 1884  2020-05-18               South East     23
## 1885  2020-05-19               South East     12
## 1886  2020-05-20               South East     22
## 1887  2020-05-21               South East     15
## 1888  2020-05-22               South East     17
## 1889  2020-05-23               South East     21
## 1890  2020-05-24               South East     17
## 1891  2020-05-25               South East     13
## 1892  2020-05-26               South East     19
## 1893  2020-05-27               South East     19
## 1894  2020-05-28               South East     12
## 1895  2020-05-29               South East     22
## 1896  2020-05-30               South East      8
## 1897  2020-05-31               South East     12
## 1898  2020-06-01               South East     11
## 1899  2020-06-02               South East     13
## 1900  2020-06-03               South East     18
## 1901  2020-06-04               South East     11
## 1902  2020-06-05               South East     11
## 1903  2020-06-06               South East     10
## 1904  2020-06-07               South East     12
## 1905  2020-06-08               South East      8
## 1906  2020-06-09               South East     11
## 1907  2020-06-10               South East     11
## 1908  2020-06-11               South East      5
## 1909  2020-06-12               South East      6
## 1910  2020-06-13               South East      7
## 1911  2020-06-14               South East      7
## 1912  2020-06-15               South East      8
## 1913  2020-06-16               South East     14
## 1914  2020-06-17               South East     10
## 1915  2020-06-18               South East      4
## 1916  2020-06-19               South East      7
## 1917  2020-06-20               South East      5
## 1918  2020-06-21               South East      3
## 1919  2020-06-22               South East      2
## 1920  2020-06-23               South East      9
## 1921  2020-06-24               South East      7
## 1922  2020-06-25               South East      5
## 1923  2020-06-26               South East      8
## 1924  2020-06-27               South East      9
## 1925  2020-06-28               South East      6
## 1926  2020-06-29               South East      5
## 1927  2020-06-30               South East      5
## 1928  2020-07-01               South East      2
## 1929  2020-07-02               South East      8
## 1930  2020-07-03               South East      3
## 1931  2020-07-04               South East      6
## 1932  2020-07-05               South East      5
## 1933  2020-07-06               South East      4
## 1934  2020-07-07               South East      6
## 1935  2020-07-08               South East      3
## 1936  2020-07-09               South East      7
## 1937  2020-07-10               South East      3
## 1938  2020-07-11               South East      4
## 1939  2020-07-12               South East      5
## 1940  2020-07-13               South East      5
## 1941  2020-07-14               South East      5
## 1942  2020-07-15               South East      6
## 1943  2020-07-16               South East      3
## 1944  2020-07-17               South East      1
## 1945  2020-07-18               South East      5
## 1946  2020-07-19               South East      2
## 1947  2020-07-20               South East      6
## 1948  2020-07-21               South East      4
## 1949  2020-07-22               South East      2
## 1950  2020-07-23               South East      3
## 1951  2020-07-24               South East      1
## 1952  2020-07-25               South East      1
## 1953  2020-07-26               South East      3
## 1954  2020-07-27               South East      1
## 1955  2020-07-28               South East      3
## 1956  2020-07-29               South East      2
## 1957  2020-07-30               South East      3
## 1958  2020-07-31               South East      1
## 1959  2020-08-01               South East      2
## 1960  2020-08-02               South East      4
## 1961  2020-08-03               South East      0
## 1962  2020-08-04               South East      0
## 1963  2020-08-05               South East      0
## 1964  2020-08-06               South East      2
## 1965  2020-08-07               South East      0
## 1966  2020-08-08               South East      2
## 1967  2020-08-09               South East      0
## 1968  2020-08-10               South East      2
## 1969  2020-08-11               South East      1
## 1970  2020-08-12               South East      1
## 1971  2020-08-13               South East      0
## 1972  2020-08-14               South East      0
## 1973  2020-08-15               South East      2
## 1974  2020-08-16               South East      1
## 1975  2020-08-17               South East      0
## 1976  2020-08-18               South East      2
## 1977  2020-08-19               South East      1
## 1978  2020-08-20               South East      0
## 1979  2020-08-21               South East      0
## 1980  2020-08-22               South East      0
## 1981  2020-08-23               South East      1
## 1982  2020-08-24               South East      0
## 1983  2020-08-25               South East      1
## 1984  2020-08-26               South East      0
## 1985  2020-08-27               South East      1
## 1986  2020-08-28               South East      2
## 1987  2020-08-29               South East      1
## 1988  2020-08-30               South East      0
## 1989  2020-08-31               South East      2
## 1990  2020-09-01               South East      1
## 1991  2020-09-02               South East      1
## 1992  2020-09-03               South East      0
## 1993  2020-09-04               South East      1
## 1994  2020-09-05               South East      0
## 1995  2020-09-06               South East      1
## 1996  2020-09-07               South East      0
## 1997  2020-09-08               South East      0
## 1998  2020-09-09               South East      0
## 1999  2020-09-10               South East      1
## 2000  2020-09-11               South East      1
## 2001  2020-09-12               South East      0
## 2002  2020-09-13               South East      3
## 2003  2020-09-14               South East      1
## 2004  2020-09-15               South East      2
## 2005  2020-09-16               South East      2
## 2006  2020-09-17               South East      3
## 2007  2020-09-18               South East      1
## 2008  2020-09-19               South East      1
## 2009  2020-09-20               South East      0
## 2010  2020-09-21               South East      3
## 2011  2020-09-22               South East      0
## 2012  2020-09-23               South East      2
## 2013  2020-09-24               South East      1
## 2014  2020-09-25               South East      3
## 2015  2020-09-26               South East      2
## 2016  2020-09-27               South East      2
## 2017  2020-09-28               South East      6
## 2018  2020-09-29               South East      3
## 2019  2020-09-30               South East      4
## 2020  2020-10-01               South East      4
## 2021  2020-10-02               South East      2
## 2022  2020-10-03               South East      1
## 2023  2020-10-04               South East      1
## 2024  2020-10-05               South East      2
## 2025  2020-10-06               South East      1
## 2026  2020-10-07               South East      4
## 2027  2020-10-08               South East      1
## 2028  2020-10-09               South East      1
## 2029  2020-10-10               South East      3
## 2030  2020-10-11               South East      3
## 2031  2020-10-12               South East      4
## 2032  2020-10-13               South East      2
## 2033  2020-10-14               South East      2
## 2034  2020-10-15               South East      3
## 2035  2020-10-16               South East      2
## 2036  2020-10-17               South East      3
## 2037  2020-10-18               South East      4
## 2038  2020-10-19               South East      7
## 2039  2020-10-20               South East      8
## 2040  2020-10-21               South East      9
## 2041  2020-10-22               South East      5
## 2042  2020-10-23               South East      7
## 2043  2020-10-24               South East      5
## 2044  2020-10-25               South East      9
## 2045  2020-10-26               South East     13
## 2046  2020-10-27               South East     10
## 2047  2020-10-28               South East     10
## 2048  2020-10-29               South East      7
## 2049  2020-10-30               South East      6
## 2050  2020-10-31               South East     15
## 2051  2020-11-01               South East     18
## 2052  2020-11-02               South East     13
## 2053  2020-11-03               South East     16
## 2054  2020-11-04               South East     10
## 2055  2020-11-05               South East     10
## 2056  2020-11-06               South East     16
## 2057  2020-11-07               South East     17
## 2058  2020-11-08               South East     18
## 2059  2020-11-09               South East     19
## 2060  2020-11-10               South East     20
## 2061  2020-11-11               South East     20
## 2062  2020-11-12               South East     20
## 2063  2020-11-13               South East     12
## 2064  2020-11-14               South East     24
## 2065  2020-11-15               South East     25
## 2066  2020-11-16               South East     22
## 2067  2020-11-17               South East     23
## 2068  2020-11-18               South East     26
## 2069  2020-11-19               South East     21
## 2070  2020-11-20               South East     18
## 2071  2020-11-21               South East     23
## 2072  2020-11-22               South East     30
## 2073  2020-11-23               South East     29
## 2074  2020-11-24               South East     26
## 2075  2020-11-25               South East     42
## 2076  2020-11-26               South East     30
## 2077  2020-11-27               South East     31
## 2078  2020-11-28               South East     24
## 2079  2020-11-29               South East     37
## 2080  2020-11-30               South East     23
## 2081  2020-12-01               South East     29
## 2082  2020-12-02               South East     33
## 2083  2020-12-03               South East     36
## 2084  2020-12-04               South East     41
## 2085  2020-12-05               South East     36
## 2086  2020-12-06               South East     32
## 2087  2020-12-07               South East     25
## 2088  2020-12-08               South East     43
## 2089  2020-12-09               South East     44
## 2090  2020-12-10               South East     38
## 2091  2020-12-11               South East     48
## 2092  2020-12-12               South East     40
## 2093  2020-12-13               South East     41
## 2094  2020-12-14               South East     38
## 2095  2020-12-15               South East     51
## 2096  2020-12-16               South East     45
## 2097  2020-12-17               South East     54
## 2098  2020-12-18               South East     48
## 2099  2020-12-19               South East     43
## 2100  2020-12-20               South East     57
## 2101  2020-12-21               South East     66
## 2102  2020-12-22               South East     62
## 2103  2020-12-23               South East     70
## 2104  2020-12-24               South East     56
## 2105  2020-12-25               South East     71
## 2106  2020-12-26               South East     75
## 2107  2020-12-27               South East     77
## 2108  2020-12-28               South East     81
## 2109  2020-12-29               South East     78
## 2110  2020-12-30               South East     92
## 2111  2020-12-31               South East     93
## 2112  2021-01-01               South East     60
## 2113  2021-01-02               South East     95
## 2114  2021-01-03               South East     79
## 2115  2021-01-04               South East    106
## 2116  2021-01-05               South East    107
## 2117  2021-01-06               South East    121
## 2118  2021-01-07               South East    116
## 2119  2021-01-08               South East    125
## 2120  2021-01-09               South East    115
## 2121  2021-01-10               South East    126
## 2122  2021-01-11               South East    128
## 2123  2021-01-12               South East    170
## 2124  2021-01-13               South East    134
## 2125  2021-01-14               South East    140
## 2126  2021-01-15               South East    126
## 2127  2021-01-16               South East    154
## 2128  2021-01-17               South East    165
## 2129  2021-01-18               South East    151
## 2130  2021-01-19               South East    154
## 2131  2021-01-20               South East    134
## 2132  2021-01-21               South East    132
## 2133  2021-01-22               South East    129
## 2134  2021-01-23               South East    122
## 2135  2021-01-24               South East    116
## 2136  2021-01-25               South East    114
## 2137  2021-01-26               South East    130
## 2138  2021-01-27               South East    113
## 2139  2021-01-28               South East    128
## 2140  2021-01-29               South East    107
## 2141  2021-01-30               South East     93
## 2142  2021-01-31               South East     94
## 2143  2021-02-01               South East     95
## 2144  2021-02-02               South East     82
## 2145  2021-02-03               South East     95
## 2146  2021-02-04               South East     58
## 2147  2021-02-05               South East     68
## 2148  2021-02-06               South East     73
## 2149  2021-02-07               South East     63
## 2150  2021-02-08               South East     67
## 2151  2021-02-09               South East     37
## 2152  2021-02-10               South East     46
## 2153  2021-02-11               South East     62
## 2154  2021-02-12               South East     43
## 2155  2021-02-13               South East     33
## 2156  2021-02-14               South East     42
## 2157  2021-02-15               South East     47
## 2158  2021-02-16               South East     38
## 2159  2021-02-17               South East     34
## 2160  2021-02-18               South East     37
## 2161  2021-02-19               South East     36
## 2162  2021-02-20               South East     30
## 2163  2021-02-21               South East     30
## 2164  2021-02-22               South East     25
## 2165  2021-02-23               South East     12
## 2166  2021-02-24               South East      3
## 2167  2020-03-01               South West      0
## 2168  2020-03-02               South West      0
## 2169  2020-03-03               South West      0
## 2170  2020-03-04               South West      0
## 2171  2020-03-05               South West      0
## 2172  2020-03-06               South West      0
## 2173  2020-03-07               South West      0
## 2174  2020-03-08               South West      0
## 2175  2020-03-09               South West      0
## 2176  2020-03-10               South West      0
## 2177  2020-03-11               South West      1
## 2178  2020-03-12               South West      0
## 2179  2020-03-13               South West      0
## 2180  2020-03-14               South West      1
## 2181  2020-03-15               South West      0
## 2182  2020-03-16               South West      0
## 2183  2020-03-17               South West      2
## 2184  2020-03-18               South West      2
## 2185  2020-03-19               South West      4
## 2186  2020-03-20               South West      3
## 2187  2020-03-21               South West      6
## 2188  2020-03-22               South West      7
## 2189  2020-03-23               South West      8
## 2190  2020-03-24               South West      7
## 2191  2020-03-25               South West      9
## 2192  2020-03-26               South West     11
## 2193  2020-03-27               South West     13
## 2194  2020-03-28               South West     21
## 2195  2020-03-29               South West     18
## 2196  2020-03-30               South West     23
## 2197  2020-03-31               South West     23
## 2198  2020-04-01               South West     21
## 2199  2020-04-02               South West     23
## 2200  2020-04-03               South West     30
## 2201  2020-04-04               South West     42
## 2202  2020-04-05               South West     32
## 2203  2020-04-06               South West     34
## 2204  2020-04-07               South West     39
## 2205  2020-04-08               South West     47
## 2206  2020-04-09               South West     24
## 2207  2020-04-10               South West     46
## 2208  2020-04-11               South West     43
## 2209  2020-04-12               South West     23
## 2210  2020-04-13               South West     27
## 2211  2020-04-14               South West     24
## 2212  2020-04-15               South West     32
## 2213  2020-04-16               South West     29
## 2214  2020-04-17               South West     33
## 2215  2020-04-18               South West     25
## 2216  2020-04-19               South West     31
## 2217  2020-04-20               South West     26
## 2218  2020-04-21               South West     26
## 2219  2020-04-22               South West     23
## 2220  2020-04-23               South West     17
## 2221  2020-04-24               South West     19
## 2222  2020-04-25               South West     15
## 2223  2020-04-26               South West     27
## 2224  2020-04-27               South West     13
## 2225  2020-04-28               South West     17
## 2226  2020-04-29               South West     15
## 2227  2020-04-30               South West     26
## 2228  2020-05-01               South West      6
## 2229  2020-05-02               South West      7
## 2230  2020-05-03               South West     10
## 2231  2020-05-04               South West     17
## 2232  2020-05-05               South West     14
## 2233  2020-05-06               South West     19
## 2234  2020-05-07               South West     16
## 2235  2020-05-08               South West      6
## 2236  2020-05-09               South West     11
## 2237  2020-05-10               South West      5
## 2238  2020-05-11               South West      8
## 2239  2020-05-12               South West      7
## 2240  2020-05-13               South West      7
## 2241  2020-05-14               South West      6
## 2242  2020-05-15               South West      4
## 2243  2020-05-16               South West      4
## 2244  2020-05-17               South West      6
## 2245  2020-05-18               South West      4
## 2246  2020-05-19               South West      6
## 2247  2020-05-20               South West      1
## 2248  2020-05-21               South West      9
## 2249  2020-05-22               South West      7
## 2250  2020-05-23               South West      6
## 2251  2020-05-24               South West      3
## 2252  2020-05-25               South West      8
## 2253  2020-05-26               South West     11
## 2254  2020-05-27               South West      5
## 2255  2020-05-28               South West     10
## 2256  2020-05-29               South West      7
## 2257  2020-05-30               South West      3
## 2258  2020-05-31               South West      2
## 2259  2020-06-01               South West      7
## 2260  2020-06-02               South West      2
## 2261  2020-06-03               South West      7
## 2262  2020-06-04               South West      2
## 2263  2020-06-05               South West      2
## 2264  2020-06-06               South West      1
## 2265  2020-06-07               South West      3
## 2266  2020-06-08               South West      3
## 2267  2020-06-09               South West      0
## 2268  2020-06-10               South West      1
## 2269  2020-06-11               South West      2
## 2270  2020-06-12               South West      2
## 2271  2020-06-13               South West      2
## 2272  2020-06-14               South West      0
## 2273  2020-06-15               South West      2
## 2274  2020-06-16               South West      2
## 2275  2020-06-17               South West      0
## 2276  2020-06-18               South West      0
## 2277  2020-06-19               South West      0
## 2278  2020-06-20               South West      2
## 2279  2020-06-21               South West      0
## 2280  2020-06-22               South West      1
## 2281  2020-06-23               South West      1
## 2282  2020-06-24               South West      1
## 2283  2020-06-25               South West      0
## 2284  2020-06-26               South West      3
## 2285  2020-06-27               South West      0
## 2286  2020-06-28               South West      0
## 2287  2020-06-29               South West      1
## 2288  2020-06-30               South West      0
## 2289  2020-07-01               South West      0
## 2290  2020-07-02               South West      0
## 2291  2020-07-03               South West      0
## 2292  2020-07-04               South West      0
## 2293  2020-07-05               South West      1
## 2294  2020-07-06               South West      0
## 2295  2020-07-07               South West      0
## 2296  2020-07-08               South West      2
## 2297  2020-07-09               South West      0
## 2298  2020-07-10               South West      1
## 2299  2020-07-11               South West      0
## 2300  2020-07-12               South West      0
## 2301  2020-07-13               South West      1
## 2302  2020-07-14               South West      0
## 2303  2020-07-15               South West      0
## 2304  2020-07-16               South West      0
## 2305  2020-07-17               South West      1
## 2306  2020-07-18               South West      0
## 2307  2020-07-19               South West      0
## 2308  2020-07-20               South West      0
## 2309  2020-07-21               South West      0
## 2310  2020-07-22               South West      0
## 2311  2020-07-23               South West      0
## 2312  2020-07-24               South West      0
## 2313  2020-07-25               South West      0
## 2314  2020-07-26               South West      0
## 2315  2020-07-27               South West      0
## 2316  2020-07-28               South West      0
## 2317  2020-07-29               South West      0
## 2318  2020-07-30               South West      1
## 2319  2020-07-31               South West      0
## 2320  2020-08-01               South West      0
## 2321  2020-08-02               South West      0
## 2322  2020-08-03               South West      0
## 2323  2020-08-04               South West      0
## 2324  2020-08-05               South West      0
## 2325  2020-08-06               South West      0
## 2326  2020-08-07               South West      0
## 2327  2020-08-08               South West      0
## 2328  2020-08-09               South West      0
## 2329  2020-08-10               South West      0
## 2330  2020-08-11               South West      0
## 2331  2020-08-12               South West      0
## 2332  2020-08-13               South West      0
## 2333  2020-08-14               South West      1
## 2334  2020-08-15               South West      0
## 2335  2020-08-16               South West      0
## 2336  2020-08-17               South West      2
## 2337  2020-08-18               South West      0
## 2338  2020-08-19               South West      0
## 2339  2020-08-20               South West      0
## 2340  2020-08-21               South West      0
## 2341  2020-08-22               South West      0
## 2342  2020-08-23               South West      0
## 2343  2020-08-24               South West      0
## 2344  2020-08-25               South West      1
## 2345  2020-08-26               South West      0
## 2346  2020-08-27               South West      1
## 2347  2020-08-28               South West      0
## 2348  2020-08-29               South West      0
## 2349  2020-08-30               South West      0
## 2350  2020-08-31               South West      0
## 2351  2020-09-01               South West      0
## 2352  2020-09-02               South West      0
## 2353  2020-09-03               South West      0
## 2354  2020-09-04               South West      0
## 2355  2020-09-05               South West      0
## 2356  2020-09-06               South West      0
## 2357  2020-09-07               South West      0
## 2358  2020-09-08               South West      1
## 2359  2020-09-09               South West      0
## 2360  2020-09-10               South West      0
## 2361  2020-09-11               South West      0
## 2362  2020-09-12               South West      0
## 2363  2020-09-13               South West      1
## 2364  2020-09-14               South West      0
## 2365  2020-09-15               South West      0
## 2366  2020-09-16               South West      0
## 2367  2020-09-17               South West      1
## 2368  2020-09-18               South West      0
## 2369  2020-09-19               South West      0
## 2370  2020-09-20               South West      1
## 2371  2020-09-21               South West      0
## 2372  2020-09-22               South West      0
## 2373  2020-09-23               South West      0
## 2374  2020-09-24               South West      1
## 2375  2020-09-25               South West      0
## 2376  2020-09-26               South West      0
## 2377  2020-09-27               South West      0
## 2378  2020-09-28               South West      0
## 2379  2020-09-29               South West      0
## 2380  2020-09-30               South West      0
## 2381  2020-10-01               South West      0
## 2382  2020-10-02               South West      1
## 2383  2020-10-03               South West      0
## 2384  2020-10-04               South West      0
## 2385  2020-10-05               South West      0
## 2386  2020-10-06               South West      1
## 2387  2020-10-07               South West      0
## 2388  2020-10-08               South West      1
## 2389  2020-10-09               South West      1
## 2390  2020-10-10               South West      0
## 2391  2020-10-11               South West      4
## 2392  2020-10-12               South West      2
## 2393  2020-10-13               South West      0
## 2394  2020-10-14               South West      3
## 2395  2020-10-15               South West      1
## 2396  2020-10-16               South West      2
## 2397  2020-10-17               South West      8
## 2398  2020-10-18               South West      2
## 2399  2020-10-19               South West      2
## 2400  2020-10-20               South West      3
## 2401  2020-10-21               South West      6
## 2402  2020-10-22               South West      6
## 2403  2020-10-23               South West      5
## 2404  2020-10-24               South West      5
## 2405  2020-10-25               South West      5
## 2406  2020-10-26               South West      7
## 2407  2020-10-27               South West      6
## 2408  2020-10-28               South West      8
## 2409  2020-10-29               South West     11
## 2410  2020-10-30               South West      8
## 2411  2020-10-31               South West      4
## 2412  2020-11-01               South West      5
## 2413  2020-11-02               South West     11
## 2414  2020-11-03               South West      7
## 2415  2020-11-04               South West      8
## 2416  2020-11-05               South West      5
## 2417  2020-11-06               South West     11
## 2418  2020-11-07               South West     10
## 2419  2020-11-08               South West     10
## 2420  2020-11-09               South West     12
## 2421  2020-11-10               South West      6
## 2422  2020-11-11               South West     13
## 2423  2020-11-12               South West     17
## 2424  2020-11-13               South West      9
## 2425  2020-11-14               South West      8
## 2426  2020-11-15               South West     16
## 2427  2020-11-16               South West     18
## 2428  2020-11-17               South West     17
## 2429  2020-11-18               South West     26
## 2430  2020-11-19               South West     15
## 2431  2020-11-20               South West     25
## 2432  2020-11-21               South West     25
## 2433  2020-11-22               South West     24
## 2434  2020-11-23               South West     14
## 2435  2020-11-24               South West     20
## 2436  2020-11-25               South West     25
## 2437  2020-11-26               South West     16
## 2438  2020-11-27               South West     21
## 2439  2020-11-28               South West     35
## 2440  2020-11-29               South West     15
## 2441  2020-11-30               South West     22
## 2442  2020-12-01               South West     19
## 2443  2020-12-02               South West     15
## 2444  2020-12-03               South West     14
## 2445  2020-12-04               South West     20
## 2446  2020-12-05               South West     17
## 2447  2020-12-06               South West     13
## 2448  2020-12-07               South West     16
## 2449  2020-12-08               South West     19
## 2450  2020-12-09               South West     22
## 2451  2020-12-10               South West     21
## 2452  2020-12-11               South West     20
## 2453  2020-12-12               South West     15
## 2454  2020-12-13               South West     19
## 2455  2020-12-14               South West     20
## 2456  2020-12-15               South West     20
## 2457  2020-12-16               South West      9
## 2458  2020-12-17               South West     26
## 2459  2020-12-18               South West     11
## 2460  2020-12-19               South West     22
## 2461  2020-12-20               South West     19
## 2462  2020-12-21               South West     22
## 2463  2020-12-22               South West     11
## 2464  2020-12-23               South West     16
## 2465  2020-12-24               South West     18
## 2466  2020-12-25               South West     19
## 2467  2020-12-26               South West     24
## 2468  2020-12-27               South West     24
## 2469  2020-12-28               South West     21
## 2470  2020-12-29               South West     20
## 2471  2020-12-30               South West     17
## 2472  2020-12-31               South West     27
## 2473  2021-01-01               South West     29
## 2474  2021-01-02               South West     24
## 2475  2021-01-03               South West     28
## 2476  2021-01-04               South West     31
## 2477  2021-01-05               South West     31
## 2478  2021-01-06               South West     25
## 2479  2021-01-07               South West     30
## 2480  2021-01-08               South West     34
## 2481  2021-01-09               South West     26
## 2482  2021-01-10               South West     31
## 2483  2021-01-11               South West     39
## 2484  2021-01-12               South West     48
## 2485  2021-01-13               South West     40
## 2486  2021-01-14               South West     33
## 2487  2021-01-15               South West     44
## 2488  2021-01-16               South West     55
## 2489  2021-01-17               South West     35
## 2490  2021-01-18               South West     45
## 2491  2021-01-19               South West     45
## 2492  2021-01-20               South West     63
## 2493  2021-01-21               South West     59
## 2494  2021-01-22               South West     59
## 2495  2021-01-23               South West     53
## 2496  2021-01-24               South West     59
## 2497  2021-01-25               South West     59
## 2498  2021-01-26               South West     43
## 2499  2021-01-27               South West     41
## 2500  2021-01-28               South West     50
## 2501  2021-01-29               South West     41
## 2502  2021-01-30               South West     39
## 2503  2021-01-31               South West     36
## 2504  2021-02-01               South West     28
## 2505  2021-02-02               South West     36
## 2506  2021-02-03               South West     31
## 2507  2021-02-04               South West     32
## 2508  2021-02-05               South West     24
## 2509  2021-02-06               South West     38
## 2510  2021-02-07               South West     34
## 2511  2021-02-08               South West     30
## 2512  2021-02-09               South West     29
## 2513  2021-02-10               South West     17
## 2514  2021-02-11               South West     18
## 2515  2021-02-12               South West     25
## 2516  2021-02-13               South West     26
## 2517  2021-02-14               South West     16
## 2518  2021-02-15               South West     18
## 2519  2021-02-16               South West     10
## 2520  2021-02-17               South West     18
## 2521  2021-02-18               South West     19
## 2522  2021-02-19               South West     17
## 2523  2021-02-20               South West     11
## 2524  2021-02-21               South West     16
## 2525  2021-02-22               South West      9
## 2526  2021-02-23               South West      2
## 2527  2021-02-24               South West      2

1.5 Completion date

We extract the completion date from the NHS Pathways file timestamp:


database_date <- attr(x, "timestamp")
database_date
## [1] "2021-02-25"

The completion date of the NHS Pathways data is Thursday 25 Feb 2021.

1.6 Auxiliary functions

These are functions which will be used further in the analyses.

Function to estimate the generalised R-squared as the proportion of deviance explained by a given model:


## Function to calculate R2 for Poisson model
## not adjusted for model complexity but all models have the same DF here

Rsq <- function(x) {
  1 - (x$deviance / x$null.deviance)
}

Function to extract growth rates per region as well as halving times, and the associated 95% confidence intervals:


## function to extract the coefficients, find the level of the intercept,
## reconstruct the values of r, get confidence intervals

get_r <- function(model) {
  ##  extract coefficients and conf int
  out <- data.frame(r = coef(model))  %>%
    rownames_to_column("var") %>% 
    cbind(confint(model)) %>%
    filter(!grepl("day_of_week", var)) %>% 
    filter(grepl("day", var)) %>%
    rename(lower_95 = "2.5 %",
           upper_95 = "97.5 %") %>%
    mutate(var = sub("day:", "", var))
  
  ## reconstruct values: intercept + region-coefficient
  for (i in 2:nrow(out)) {
    out[i, -1] <- out[1, -1] + out[i, -1]
  }
  
  ## find the name of the intercept, restore regions names
  out <- out %>%
    mutate(nhs_region = model$xlevels$nhs_region) %>%
    select(nhs_region, everything(), -var)
  
  ## find halving times
  halving <- log(0.5) / out[,-1] %>%
    rename(halving_t = r,
           halving_t_lower_95 = lower_95,
           halving_t_upper_95 = upper_95)
  
  ## set halving times with exclusion intervals to NA
  no_halving <- out$lower_95 < 0 & out$upper_95 > 0
  halving[no_halving, ] <- NA_real_
  
  ## return all data
  cbind(out, halving)
  
}

Functions used in the correlation analysis between NHS Pathways reports and deaths:

## Function to calculate Pearson's correlation between deaths and lagged
## reports. Note that `pearson` can be replaced with `spearman` for rank
## correlation.

getcor <- function(x, ndx) {
  return(cor(x$deaths[ndx],
             x$note_lag[ndx],
             use = "complete.obs",
             method = "pearson"))
}

## Catch if sample size throws an error
getcor2 <- possibly(getcor, otherwise = NA)

getboot <- function(x) {
  result <- boot::boot.ci(boot::boot(x, getcor2, R = 1000), 
                           type = "bca")
  return(data.frame(n = sum(!is.na(x$note_lag) & !is.na(x$deaths)),
                    r = result$t0,
                    r_low = result$bca[4],
                    r_hi = result$bca[5]))
}

Function to classify the day of the week into weekend, Monday, and the rest:


## Fn to add day of week
day_of_week <- function(df) {
  df %>% 
    dplyr::mutate(day_of_week = lubridate::wday(date, label = TRUE)) %>% 
    dplyr::mutate(day_of_week = dplyr::case_when(
      day_of_week %in% c("Sat", "Sun") ~ "weekend",
      day_of_week %in% c("Mon") ~ "monday",
      !(day_of_week %in% c("Sat", "Sun", "Mon")) ~ "rest_of_week"
    ) %>% 
      factor(levels = c("rest_of_week", "monday", "weekend")))
}

Custom color palettes, color scales, and vectors of colors:


pal <- c("#006212",
         "#ae3cab",
         "#00db90",
         "#960c00",
         "#55aaff",
         "#ff7e78",
         "#00388d")

age.pal <- viridis::viridis(3,begin = 0.1, end = 0.7)

3 Comparison with deaths time series

3.1 Outline

We want to explore the correlation between NHS Pathways reports and deaths, and assess the potential for reports to be used as an early warning system for disease resurgence.

Death data are publically available. We truncate the time series to avoid bias from reporting delay - we assume a conservative delay of three weeks.

3.2 Lagged correlation

We calculate Pearson’s correlation coefficient between deaths and NHS Pathways notifications using different lags. Confidence intervals are obtained using bootstrap. Note that results were also confirmed using Spearman’s rank correlation.

First we join the NHS Pathways and death data, and aggregate over all England:

## truncate death data for reporting delay
trunc_date <- max(dth$date_report) - delay_max

dth_trunc <- dth %>%
  rename(date = date_report) %>%
  filter(date <= trunc_date) 

## join with notification data
all_data <- x %>% 
  filter(!is.na(nhs_region)) %>%
  group_by(date, nhs_region) %>%
  summarise(count = sum(count, na.rm = T)) %>%
  ungroup %>%
  inner_join(dth_trunc,
             by = c("date","nhs_region"))

all_tot <- all_data %>%
  group_by(date) %>%
  summarise(count = sum(count, na.rm = TRUE),
            deaths = sum(deaths, na.rm = TRUE)) 

We calculate correlation with lagged NHS Pathways reports from 0 to 30 days behind deaths:


## Calculate all correlations + bootstrap CIs
lag_cor <- data.frame()
for (i in 0:30) {
  
  ## lag reports
  summary <- all_tot %>% 
    mutate(note_lag = lag(count, i)) %>%
    ## calculate rank correlation and bootstrap CI
    getboot(.) %>%
    mutate(lag = i)

  lag_cor <- bind_rows(lag_cor, summary)
}

cor_vs_lag <- ggplot(lag_cor, aes(lag, r)) +
  theme_bw() +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = r_low, ymax = r_hi), alpha = 0.2) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, lty = "longdash") +
  geom_point() +
  geom_line() +
  labs(x = "Lag between NHS pathways and death data (days)",
       y = "Pearson's correlation") +
  large_txt
cor_vs_lag


l_opt <- which.max(lag_cor$r)

This analysis suggests that the best lag is 15 days. We then compare and plot the number of deaths reported against the number of NHS Pathways reports lagged by 15 days.


all_tot <- all_tot %>%
  rename(date_death = date) %>%
  mutate(note_lag = lag(count, lag_cor$lag[l_opt]),
         note_lag_c = (note_lag - mean(note_lag, na.rm = T)),
         date_note = lag(date_death,16))

lag_mod <- glm(deaths ~ note_lag, data = all_tot, family = "quasipoisson")

summary(lag_mod)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = deaths ~ note_lag, family = "quasipoisson", data = all_tot)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -18.609  -15.964   -5.679    6.685   33.589  
## 
## Coefficients:
##              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 5.168e+00  6.935e-02  74.527   <2e-16 ***
## note_lag    1.184e-05  1.266e-06   9.356   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 226.7768)
## 
##     Null deviance: 79379  on 307  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 64783  on 306  degrees of freedom
##   (15 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: NA
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5

exp(coefficients(lag_mod))
## (Intercept)    note_lag 
##  175.599385    1.000012
exp(confint(lag_mod))
##                  2.5 %     97.5 %
## (Intercept) 152.882709 200.662455
## note_lag      1.000009   1.000014

Rsq(lag_mod)
## [1] 0.1838838

mod_fit <- as.data.frame(predict(lag_mod, type = "link", se.fit = TRUE)[1:2])

all_tot_pred <- 
  all_tot %>%
  filter(!is.na(note_lag)) %>%
  mutate(pred = mod_fit$fit,
         pred.se = mod_fit$se.fit,
         low = exp(pred - 1.96*pred.se),
         hi = exp(pred + 1.96*pred.se))


glm_fit <- all_tot_pred %>% 
    filter(!is.na(note_lag)) %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = note_lag, y = deaths)) +
  geom_point() + 
  geom_line(aes(y = exp(pred))) + 
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = low, ymax = hi), alpha = 0.3, col = "grey") +
  theme_bw() +
  labs(y = "Daily number of\ndeaths reported",
       x = "Daily number of NHS Pathways reports") +
  large_txt

glm_fit

4 Supplementary figures

4.1 Serial interval distribution

This is a comparison of gamma versus lognormal distribution for the serial interval used to convert r to R in our analysis. Both distributions are parameterised with mean 4.7 and standard deviation 2.9.

SI_param <- epitrix::gamma_mucv2shapescale(4.7, 2.9/4.7)
SI_distribution <- distcrete::distcrete("gamma", interval = 1,
                                        shape = SI_param$shape,
                                        scale = SI_param$scale, w = 0.5)

SI_distribution2 <- distcrete::distcrete("lnorm", interval = 1,
                                        meanlog = log(4.7),
                                        sdlog = log(2.9), w = 0.5)

SI_dist1 <- data.frame(x = SI_distribution$r(1e5)) 
SI_dist1 <- count(SI_dist1, x) %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_col(aes(x = x, y = n)) +
    labs(x = "Serial interval (days)", y = "Frequency") +
    scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(0, 30, 5)) +
    theme_bw()

SI_dist2 <- data.frame(x = SI_distribution2$r(1e5)) 
SI_dist2 <- count(SI_dist2, x) %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_col(aes(x = x, y = n)) +
    labs(x = "Serial interval (days)", y = "Frequency") +
    scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(0, 200, 20), limits = c(0, 200)) +
    theme_bw()


ggpubr::ggarrange(SI_dist1,
                  SI_dist2,
                  nrow = 1,
                  labels = "AUTO") 

4.2 Sensitivity analysis - 7 or 21 days moving window

We reproduce the window analysis with either a 7 or 21 days window for sensitivity purposes.

First with the 7 days window:

## set moving time window (1/2/3 weeks)
w <- 7

# create empty df
r_all_sliding_7days <- NULL

## make data for model
x_model_all_moving <- x %>%
  filter(!is.na(nhs_region)) %>% 
  group_by(date, nhs_region) %>%
  summarise(n = sum(count)) 

unique_dates <- unique(x_model_all_moving$date)

for (i in 1:(length(unique_dates) - w)) {
  
  date_i <- unique_dates[i]
  
  date_i_max <- date_i + w
  
  model_data <- x_model_all_moving %>%
    filter(date >= date_i & date < date_i_max) %>%
    mutate(day = as.integer(date - date_i)) %>% 
    day_of_week()
  
  
  mod <- glm(n ~ day * nhs_region + day_of_week,
             data = model_data,
             family = 'quasipoisson')
  
  # get growth rate
  r <- get_r(mod)
  r$w_min <- date_i
  r$w_max <- date_i_max
  
  # combine all estimates
  r_all_sliding_7days <- bind_rows(r_all_sliding_7days, r)
  
}

#serial interval distribution
SI_param = epitrix::gamma_mucv2shapescale(4.7, 2.9/4.7)
SI_distribution <- distcrete::distcrete("gamma", interval = 1,
                                        shape = SI_param$shape,
                                        scale = SI_param$scale,
                                        w = 0.5)

#convert growth rates r to R0
r_all_sliding_7days <- r_all_sliding_7days %>%
  mutate(R = epitrix::r2R0(r, SI_distribution),
         R_lower_95 = epitrix::r2R0(lower_95, SI_distribution),
         R_upper_95 = epitrix::r2R0(upper_95, SI_distribution))
# plot
plot_growth <-
  r_all_sliding_7days %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = r)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lower_95, ymax = upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0.5,0.5, "cm")) +
  guides(colour = guide_legend(title = "",override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "",
       y = "Estimated daily growth rate (r)") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal)
plot_R <- r_all_sliding_7days %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = R)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = R_lower_95, ymax = R_upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 1, linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0.5,0.5, "cm")) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "", override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "",
       y = "Estimated effective reproduction\nnumber (Re)") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal)

R <- r_all_sliding_7days %>%
  mutate(lower_95 = R_lower_95, 
         upper_95 = R_upper_95,
         value = R,
         measure = "R",
         reference = 1)

r_R <- r_all_sliding_7days %>%
  mutate(measure = "r",
         value = r,
         reference = 0) %>%
  bind_rows(R)

r_R_7 <- r_R %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = value)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lower_95, ymax = upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(aes(yintercept = reference), linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0,0, "cm"),
        strip.background = element_blank(),
        strip.placement = "outside"
  ) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "", override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "", y = "") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal) +
  facet_grid(rows = vars(measure),
             scales = "free_y",
             switch = "y",
             labeller = as_labeller(c(r = "Daily growth rate (r)",
                                      R = "Effective reproduction\nnumber (Re)")))

Then with the 21 days window:

## set moving time window (1/2/3 weeks)
w <- 21

# create empty df
r_all_sliding_21days <- NULL

## make data for model
x_model_all_moving <- x %>%
  filter(!is.na(nhs_region)) %>% 
  group_by(date, nhs_region) %>%
  summarise(n = sum(count)) 

unique_dates <- unique(x_model_all_moving$date)

for (i in 1:(length(unique_dates) - w)) {
  
  date_i <- unique_dates[i]
  
  date_i_max <- date_i + w
  
  model_data <- x_model_all_moving %>%
    filter(date >= date_i & date < date_i_max) %>%
    mutate(day = as.integer(date - date_i)) %>% 
    day_of_week()
  
  
  mod <- glm(n ~ day * nhs_region + day_of_week,
             data = model_data,
             family = 'quasipoisson')
  
  # get growth rate
  r <- get_r(mod)
  r$w_min <- date_i
  r$w_max <- date_i_max
  
  # combine all estimates
  r_all_sliding_21days <- bind_rows(r_all_sliding_21days, r)
  
}

#serial interval distribution
SI_param = epitrix::gamma_mucv2shapescale(4.7, 2.9/4.7)
SI_distribution <- distcrete::distcrete("gamma", interval = 1,
                                        shape = SI_param$shape,
                                        scale = SI_param$scale,
                                        w = 0.5)

#convert growth rates r to R0
r_all_sliding_21days <- r_all_sliding_21days %>%
  mutate(R = epitrix::r2R0(r, SI_distribution),
         R_lower_95 = epitrix::r2R0(lower_95, SI_distribution),
         R_upper_95 = epitrix::r2R0(upper_95, SI_distribution))
# plot
plot_growth <-
  r_all_sliding_21days %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = r)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lower_95, ymax = upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0.5,0.5, "cm")) +
  guides(colour = guide_legend(title = "",override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "",
       y = "Estimated daily growth rate (r)") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal)
# plot
plot_R <-
  r_all_sliding_21days %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = R)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = R_lower_95, ymax = R_upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 1, linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0.5,0.5, "cm")) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "", override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "",
       y = "Estimated effective reproduction\nnumber (Re)") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal)

R <- r_all_sliding_21days %>%
  mutate(lower_95 = R_lower_95, 
         upper_95 = R_upper_95,
         value = R,
         measure = "R",
         reference = 1)

r_R <- r_all_sliding_21days %>%
  mutate(measure = "r",
         value = r,
         reference = 0) %>%
  bind_rows(R)

r_R_21 <- r_R %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = value)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lower_95, ymax = upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(aes(yintercept = reference), linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0,0, "cm"),
        strip.background = element_blank(),
        strip.placement = "outside"
  ) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "", override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "", y = "") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal) +
  facet_grid(rows = vars(measure),
             scales = "free_y",
             switch = "y",
             labeller = as_labeller(c(r = "Daily growth rate (r)",
                                      R = "Effective reproduction\nnumber (Re)")))

And we combine both outputs into a single plot:


ggpubr::ggarrange(r_R_7,
                  r_R_21,
                  nrow = 2,
                  labels = "AUTO",
                  common.legend = TRUE,
                  legend = "bottom") 

4.3 Correlation between NHS Pathways reports and deaths by NHS region


lag_cor_reg <- data.frame()

for (i in 0:30) {

  summary <-
    all_data %>%
    group_by(nhs_region) %>%
    mutate(note_lag = lag(count, i)) %>%
    ## calculate rank correlation and bootstrap CI for each region
    group_modify(~getboot(.x)) %>%
    mutate(lag = i)
  
  lag_cor_reg <- bind_rows(lag_cor_reg, summary)
}

cor_vs_lag_reg <- 
lag_cor_reg %>%
ggplot(aes(lag, r, col = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, lty = "longdash") +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = r_low, ymax = r_hi, col = NULL, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.2) +
  geom_point() +
  geom_line() +
  facet_wrap(~nhs_region) +
  scale_color_manual(values = pal) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = pal, guide = F) +  
  theme_bw() +
  labs(x = "Lag between NHS pathways and death data (days)", y = "Pearson's correlation", col = "NHS region") +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(override.aes = list(fill = NA)))

cor_vs_lag_reg

5 Export data

We save the tables created during our analysis:


if (!dir.exists("excel_tables")) {
  dir.create("excel_tables")
}


## list all tables, and loop over export
tables_to_export <- c("r_all_sliding", "lag_cor")

for (e in tables_to_export) {
  rio::export(get(e),
              file.path("excel_tables",
                        paste0(e, ".xlsx")))
}

## also export result from regression on lagged data 
rio::export(lag_mod, file.path("excel_tables", "lag_mod.rds"))

6 System information

6.1 Outline

The following information documents the system on which the document was compiled.

6.2 System

This provides information on the operating system.

Sys.info()
##                                                                                             sysname 
##                                                                                            "Darwin" 
##                                                                                             release 
##                                                                                            "19.6.0" 
##                                                                                             version 
## "Darwin Kernel Version 19.6.0: Tue Jan 12 22:13:05 PST 2021; root:xnu-6153.141.16~1/RELEASE_X86_64" 
##                                                                                            nodename 
##                                                                           "Mac-1614334350604.local" 
##                                                                                             machine 
##                                                                                            "x86_64" 
##                                                                                               login 
##                                                                                              "root" 
##                                                                                                user 
##                                                                                            "runner" 
##                                                                                      effective_user 
##                                                                                            "runner"

6.3 R environment

This provides information on the version of R used:

R.version
##                _                           
## platform       x86_64-apple-darwin17.0     
## arch           x86_64                      
## os             darwin17.0                  
## system         x86_64, darwin17.0          
## status                                     
## major          4                           
## minor          0.4                         
## year           2021                        
## month          02                          
## day            15                          
## svn rev        80002                       
## language       R                           
## version.string R version 4.0.4 (2021-02-15)
## nickname       Lost Library Book

6.4 R packages

This provides information on the packages used:

sessionInfo()
## R version 4.0.4 (2021-02-15)
## Platform: x86_64-apple-darwin17.0 (64-bit)
## Running under: macOS Catalina 10.15.7
## 
## Matrix products: default
## BLAS:   /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/4.0/Resources/lib/libRblas.dylib
## LAPACK: /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/4.0/Resources/lib/libRlapack.dylib
## 
## locale:
## [1] en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/C/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8
## 
## attached base packages:
## [1] stats     graphics  grDevices utils     datasets  methods   base     
## 
## other attached packages:
##  [1] ggnewscale_0.4.5     ggpubr_0.4.0         lubridate_1.7.9.2   
##  [4] chngpt_2020.10-12    cyphr_1.1.0          DT_0.17             
##  [7] kableExtra_1.3.4     janitor_2.1.0        remotes_2.2.0       
## [10] projections_0.5.2    earlyR_0.0.5         epitrix_0.2.2       
## [13] distcrete_1.0.3      incidence_1.7.3      rio_0.5.16          
## [16] reshape2_1.4.4       rvest_0.3.6          xml2_1.3.2          
## [19] linelist_0.0.40.9000 forcats_0.5.1        stringr_1.4.0       
## [22] dplyr_1.0.4          purrr_0.3.4          readr_1.4.0         
## [25] tidyr_1.1.2          tibble_3.1.0         ggplot2_3.3.3       
## [28] tidyverse_1.3.0      here_1.0.1           reportfactory_0.0.5 
## 
## loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
##  [1] minqa_1.2.4       colorspace_2.0-0  selectr_0.4-2     ggsignif_0.6.1   
##  [5] ellipsis_0.3.1    rprojroot_2.0.2   snakecase_0.11.0  fs_1.5.0         
##  [9] rstudioapi_0.13   farver_2.0.3      fansi_0.4.2       splines_4.0.4    
## [13] knitr_1.31        jsonlite_1.7.2    nloptr_1.2.2.2    broom_0.7.5      
## [17] dbplyr_2.1.0      compiler_4.0.4    httr_1.4.2        backports_1.2.1  
## [21] assertthat_0.2.1  Matrix_1.3-2      cli_2.3.1         htmltools_0.5.1.1
## [25] tools_4.0.4       gtable_0.3.0      glue_1.4.2        Rcpp_1.0.6       
## [29] carData_3.0-4     cellranger_1.1.0  vctrs_0.3.6       svglite_2.0.0    
## [33] nlme_3.1-152      matchmaker_0.1.1  crosstalk_1.1.1   xfun_0.21        
## [37] ps_1.5.0          openxlsx_4.2.3    lme4_1.1-26       lifecycle_1.0.0  
## [41] statmod_1.4.35    rstatix_0.7.0     MASS_7.3-53       scales_1.1.1     
## [45] hms_1.0.0         parallel_4.0.4    sodium_1.1        yaml_2.2.1       
## [49] curl_4.3          gridExtra_2.3     stringi_1.5.3     highr_0.8        
## [53] kyotil_2020.10-12 boot_1.3-26       zip_2.1.1         rlang_0.4.10     
## [57] pkgconfig_2.0.3   systemfonts_1.0.1 evaluate_0.14     lattice_0.20-41  
## [61] labeling_0.4.2    htmlwidgets_1.5.3 cowplot_1.1.1     tidyselect_1.1.0 
## [65] plyr_1.8.6        magrittr_2.0.1    R6_2.5.0          generics_0.1.0   
## [69] DBI_1.1.1         mgcv_1.8-33       pillar_1.5.0      haven_2.3.1      
## [73] foreign_0.8-81    withr_2.4.1       survival_3.2-7    abind_1.4-5      
## [77] modelr_0.1.8      crayon_1.4.1      car_3.0-10        utf8_1.1.4       
## [81] rmarkdown_2.7     viridis_0.5.1     grid_4.0.4        readxl_1.3.1     
## [85] data.table_1.14.0 reprex_1.0.0      digest_0.6.27     webshot_0.5.2    
## [89] munsell_0.5.0     viridisLite_0.3.0